Nouakchott King's v AC Douane prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nouakchott King'sDrawAC Douane

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · AC Douane 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with AC Douane just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Nouakchott King's 33%, draw 30%, AC Douane 37%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Nouakchott King's v AC DouaneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Nouakchott King's win33%

Draw30%

AC Douane win37%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nouakchott King's

AC Douane

12Days since last match18

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Mauritania)

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Mauritania)

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Nouakchott King's	2	−2	1
14	AC Douane	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ac douane winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make AC Douane a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nouakchott King's v AC Douane~~1.26 – 1.35

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 11 Oct~~W0 D1 L1 · W0 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 0~~11 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nouakchott King's win	33%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
AC Douane win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Nouakchott King's or draw	63%	–	–
Nouakchott King's clean sheet	26%	–	–
AC Douane clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 9.3 8.2 6.7 3.1 1 7.6 14.1 8.3 3.8 2 5.9 7.7 5.2 2.4 3 2.5 3.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nouakchott King's down, AC Douane across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nouakchott King's at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). AC Douane away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Nouakchott King's, 1.35 for AC Douane. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ACD 1–0 NOU · NOU 1–2 ACD · ACD 0–0 NOU · NOU 1–1 ACD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 11 Oct

NOUAKCHOTT KING'S

DL1–1 · 0–2

AC DOUANE

L1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pompiers	2	+3	4
2	N'Zidane	2	+2	4
3	Police	2	+2	4
4	Gendrim	1	+1	3
5	Armée	2	0	2
6	Tevragh-Zeïne	2	0	2
7	SNIM	1	0	1
8	Chemal	1	0	1
9	Nouadhibou	1	0	1
10	Nouakchott Academie	1	0	1
11	Nouakchott King's	2	−2	1
12	Kaédi	2	−2	1
13	Kédia	2	−3	1
14	AC Douane	1	−1	0