Nouadhibou v SNIM prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NouadhibouDrawSNIM

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:50

Before kick-off · Match result · Nouadhibou 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nouadhibou are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nouadhibou 59%, draw 28%, SNIM 12%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Nouadhibou v SNIMBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Nouadhibou win59%

Draw28%

SNIM win12%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 19:50

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nouadhibou

SNIM

12Days since last match18

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Mauritania)

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	SNIM	1	0	1
9	Nouadhibou	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nouadhibou winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Nouadhibou a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nouadhibou v SNIM~~1.54 – 0.58

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 1~~9 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nouadhibou win	59%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
SNIM win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Nouadhibou or draw	88%	–	–
Nouadhibou clean sheet	56%	–	–
SNIM clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.0%

0123450 13.9 5.5 2.1 1 17.0 12.0 3.1 2 14.2 8.0 2.4 3 7.3 4.1 4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nouadhibou down, SNIM across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nouadhibou at home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). SNIM away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Nouadhibou, 0.58 for SNIM. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NOU 0–0 SNI · SNI 0–1 NOU · SNI 0–2 NOU · NOU 2–1 SNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

NOUADHIBOU

D0–0

SNIM

D1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pompiers	2	+3	4
2	N'Zidane	2	+2	4
3	Police	2	+2	4
4	Gendrim	1	+1	3
5	Armée	2	0	2
6	Tevragh-Zeïne	2	0	2
7	SNIM	1	0	1
8	Chemal	1	0	1
9	Nouadhibou	1	0	1
10	Nouakchott Academie	1	0	1
11	Nouakchott King's	2	−2	1
12	Kaédi	2	−2	1
13	Kédia	2	−3	1
14	AC Douane	1	−1	0