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Model 1.1

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Chemal v Police

Chemal
0–0Full time
Police

Premier League · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:01
Chemal 0–0 Police CHEMAL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Chemal win45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.730

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 7 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Chemal win at 45%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Chemal 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Chemal v Police
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Chemal 0–0 Police
  5. 46′SECOND HALF Chemal 0–0 Police
  6. 65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Chemal 0–1 Police
  7. 81′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Chemal
  8. 90′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Chemal
  9. FTFULL TIME Chemal 0–0 Police
  10. FTChemal 0–0 Police · Chemal win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:02 · locked at kick-off

Chemal win45%
Draw31%
Police win24%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Chemal

Police

140Days since last match140
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chemal winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 18:02 · locked at kick-off
45% The market–
Us45%

We make Chemal a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 10 OCT 03:5712 OCT 04:03
Our probability · chemal win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Chemal win45%––
Draw31%––
Police win24%––
Over 2.5 goals39%––
Both teams to score45%––
Over 1.5 goals67%––
Over 3.5 goals19%––
Chemal or draw76%––
Chemal clean sheet41%––
Police clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%
0123450 12.6 8.0 4.4 1 12.5 14.3 5.8 2 9.4 8.4 3.8 3 4.2 3.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Chemal down, Police across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsPOL 0–1 CHE · CHE 1–1 POL · CHE 2–0 POL · POL 0–1 CHE

Form · last six in Premier League

CHEMAL

LDWLWW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 5–3 · 1–0

POLICE

LDLLLL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Pompiers1+33
2Gendrim1+13
3Nouakchott King's101
4SNIM101
5Armée101
6Kaédi101
7N'Zidane101
8Nouadhibou101
9Nouakchott Academie101
10Tevragh-Zeïne101
11AC Douane1−10
12Kédia1−30

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.