Chemal v Gendrim prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ChemalDrawGendrim

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:50

Before kick-off · Match result · Chemal 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chemal are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chemal 42%, draw 33%, Gendrim 24%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Chemal v GendrimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Chemal win42%

Draw33%

Gendrim win24%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 19:50

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chemal

Gendrim

14Days since last match15

Last match: 12 Oct · Premier League (Mauritania)

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Mauritania)

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Gendrim	1	+1	3
8	Chemal	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chemal winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Chemal a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chemal v Gendrim~~1.21 – 0.86

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 11 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chemal win	42%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Gendrim win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Chemal or draw	76%	–	–
Chemal clean sheet	43%	–	–
Gendrim clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.8%

0123450 14.8 9.1 4.7 1 13.5 14.7 5.6 2 9.2 7.8 3.3 3 3.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chemal down, Gendrim across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chemal at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gendrim away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Chemal, 0.86 for Gendrim. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GEN 2–1 CHE · CHE 3–4 GEN · CHE 1–0 GEN · GEN 0–2 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 11 Oct

CHEMAL

D0–0

GENDRIM

W2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pompiers	2	+3	4
2	N'Zidane	2	+2	4
3	Police	2	+2	4
4	Gendrim	1	+1	3
5	Armée	2	0	2
6	Tevragh-Zeïne	2	0	2
7	SNIM	1	0	1
8	Chemal	1	0	1
9	Nouadhibou	1	0	1
10	Nouakchott Academie	1	0	1
11	Nouakchott King's	2	−2	1
12	Kaédi	2	−2	1
13	Kédia	2	−3	1
14	AC Douane	1	−1	0