AC Douane v Gendrim prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

AC Douane 1–2 Gendrim AC DOUANE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AC Douane win~~51%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.995

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.934

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AC Douane win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AC Douane 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–27–21
4′Little has changed for our model: AC Douane 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–28–21
23′A goal for Gendrim on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–27–53
28′A goal for Gendrim on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–28–55
44′We said AC Douane at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–27–61
45′We said AC Douane at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–27–61
47′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 11–27–62
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' AC Douane 0–2 Gendrim
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
68′63′ and it is 0–2: Gendrim have scored. 0–2 · 0–4–96
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 0% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 0% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 0% now
71′63′ and it is 0–2: Gendrim have scored. 0–2 · 0–3–97
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' AC Douane win: 51% at kick-off, 0% now
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' AC Douane 1–2 Gendrim
90′AC Douane find the net on 87′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME AC Douane 1–2 Gendrim
FTAC Douane 1–2 Gendrim · AC Douane win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 10 Oct 00:00

AC Douane win51%

Draw30%

Gendrim win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

AC Douane

Gendrim

139Days since last match139

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ac douane winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

51% The market49%

Us51%

~~Market~~49%

We make AC Douane a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ac douane win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AC Douane win	51%	49%	+2
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Gendrim win	19%	22%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	39%	40%	−2
Both teams to score	43%	45%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	67%	65%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	22%	−3
AC Douane or draw	81%	78%	+3
AC Douane clean sheet	45%	–	–
Gendrim clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 12.5 7.0 3.4 1 13.8 13.6 4.8 2 11.0 8.6 3.5 3 5.3 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AC Douane down, Gendrim across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,148 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.12 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AC Douane at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gendrim away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for AC Douane, 0.80 for Gendrim. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.