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Zabbar St. Patrick v Sliema Wanderers

Zabbar St. Patrick
2–3Full time
Sliema Wanderers

Premier League · WED 21 OCT · Centenary Stadium

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 22:01
Zabbar St. Patrick 2–3 Sliema Wanderers SLIEMA WANDERERS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sliema Wanderers win44%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.473
The market’s Brier score0.367

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 38 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sliema Wanderers win at 44%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Sliema Wanderers was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 27–29–44
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Zabbar St. Patrick v Sliema Wanderers
  4. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Zabbar St. Patrick
  5. 27′A goal for Zabbar St. Patrick on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 60–24–16
  6. 27′We said Sliema Wanderers at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 60–24–16
  7. 27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Zabbar St. Patrick 1–0 Sliema Wanderers
  8. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Sliema Wanderers win: 44% at kick-off, 16% now
  9. 27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Zabbar St. Patrick win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Sliema Wanderers win 40%)
  10. 29′GOAL DISALLOWED · 29' Zabbar St. Patrick
  11. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Sliema Wanderers win: 44% at kick-off, 39% now
  12. 42′A goal for Sliema Wanderers on 42′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–18–76
  13. 42′We published Sliema Wanderers at 44%. Our model now makes it 76%. 0–1 · 6–18–76
  14. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Zabbar St. Patrick 0–1 Sliema Wanderers
  15. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Sliema Wanderers win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
  16. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Sliema Wanderers win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Zabbar St. Patrick win 61%)
  17. 43′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 6–18–76
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Zabbar St. Patrick 0–1 Sliema Wanderers
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Zabbar St. Patrick 0–1 Sliema Wanderers
  20. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Zabbar St. Patrick
  21. 54′Zabbar St. Patrick score on 54′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 21–48–31
  22. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Zabbar St. Patrick 1–1 Sliema Wanderers
  23. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Sliema Wanderers win: 44% at kick-off, 31% now
  24. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Sliema Wanderers win 78%)
  25. 55′We said Sliema Wanderers at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 21–48–31
  26. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Zabbar St. Patrick
  27. 57′Sliema Wanderers find the net on 57′. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–17–79
  28. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Zabbar St. Patrick 1–2 Sliema Wanderers
  29. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Sliema Wanderers win: 44% at kick-off, 79% now
  30. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Sliema Wanderers win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 50%)
  31. 58′We published Sliema Wanderers at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 4–17–80
  32. 59′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  33. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Zabbar St. Patrick
  34. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Sliema Wanderers win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
  35. 71′We published Sliema Wanderers at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
  36. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Zabbar St. Patrick · On: P. F. Gouhon · Off: Joao Mafra
  37. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Sliema Wanderers
  38. 79′We published Sliema Wanderers at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  39. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sliema Wanderers · On: M. Awad · Off: W. M. Alli
  40. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Zabbar St. Patrick · On: K. Fenech · Off: T. Melillo
  41. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Zabbar St. Patrick · On: N. Agius · Off: P. F. Gouhon
  42. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Sliema Wanderers
  43. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Zabbar St. Patrick · On: M. Fontanella · Off: Vinicius Kanu
  44. 82′A goal for Zabbar St. Patrick on 81′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 8–82–11
  45. 82′We said Sliema Wanderers at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 2–2 · 8–82–11
  46. 82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Zabbar St. Patrick 2–2 Sliema Wanderers
  47. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Sliema Wanderers win: 44% at kick-off, 11% now
  48. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Sliema Wanderers win 91%)
  49. 83′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 7–84–10
  50. 84′Sliema Wanderers score on 84′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–6–94
  51. 84′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–6–94
  52. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Zabbar St. Patrick 2–3 Sliema Wanderers
  53. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Sliema Wanderers win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
  54. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Sliema Wanderers win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 86%)
  55. 86′We published Sliema Wanderers at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
  56. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sliema Wanderers · On: C. Kouadio · Off: D. Camara
  57. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Sliema Wanderers · On: N. Robertha · Off: T. Teuma Corrected
  58. FTFULL TIME Zabbar St. Patrick 2–3 Sliema Wanderers
  59. FTZabbar St. Patrick 2–3 Sliema Wanderers · Sliema Wanderers win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sliema Wanderers are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zabbar St. Patrick 27%, draw 29%, Sliema Wanderers 44%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Zabbar St. Patrick v Sliema WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Zabbar St. Patrick win27%
Draw29%
Sliema Wanderers win44%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueCentenary Stadium

Line-ups

Zabbar St. Patrick

Sliema Wanderers

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zabbar St. Patrick

Sliema Wanderers

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Sliema Wanderers8−111
10Zabbar St. Patrick8−48

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Zabbar St. Patrick

Formation not confirmed

30 P. Mohorovic

2 K. Brucic

10 Joao Mafra

15 M. Jovicic

16 J. Micallef

21 S. Jovancic

22 Z. Leonardi

29 Vinicius Kanu

32 T. Moriceau

33 A. Agyeman

71 T. Melillo

Coach · Adolfo Sormani

Substitutes

1 · S. Leon

91 · L. Kacaj

4 · S. Magri

11 · N. Agius

18 · P. F. Gouhon

23 · Z. Polidano

31 · L. Zerafa

39 · A. Callus

70 · K. Fenech

77 · A. Ellard

89 · M. Fontanella

Sliema Wanderers

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Bonello

4 D. Camara

10 T. Teuma

11 B. Gambarte

15 Gustavo Alcino

17 A. Limbombe

23 A. Satariano

28 V. Drobarov

29 I. Cojocaru

30 W. M. Alli

40 R. Polley

Coach · Branko Nisevic

Substitutes

31 · F. Lauri

5 · D. Zammit

9 · N. Robertha

13 · J. Naudi

14 · K. Grima

18 · C. Kouadio

20 · E. Brincat Winters

21 · M. Radojevic

27 · G. Grima

33 · U. Hijazi

77 · M. Awad

Our number · sliema wanderers winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
44% The market51%
Us44%
Market51%

We make Sliema Wanderers a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Zabbar St. Patrick v Sliema Wanderers1.04 – 1.40
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 AugW1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 8 v 1110 v 6
The market · Sliema Wanderers win51% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 19:09
Our probability · Sliema Wanderers win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Zabbar St. Patrick win27%22%+5
Draw29%27%+2
Sliema Wanderers win44%51%−7
Over 2.5 goals44%45%−1
Both teams to score49%49%0
Over 1.5 goals71%69%+2
Over 3.5 goals23%25%−2
Zabbar St. Patrick or draw56%49%+7
Zabbar St. Patrick clean sheet25%––
Sliema Wanderers clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%
0123450 10.4 11.1 8.5 4.0 1 8.0 13.6 8.5 4.0 2 4.8 6.4 4.4 2.1 3 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Zabbar St. Patrick down, Sliema Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting1.80
Over 2.51 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsZAB 1–1 SLI · SLI 1–0 ZAB · ZAB 1–2 SLI · ZAB 1–0 SLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

ZABBAR ST. PATRICK

DLDLLW1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

SLIEMA WANDERERS

WWWDDL2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Valletta FC8+1219
2Marsaxlokk8+517
3Floriana8+915
4Mosta8+213
5Hamrun Spartans8+312
6Sliema Wanderers8−111
7Balzan FC8+210
8Birkirkara8+110
9Hibernians8−49
10Zabbar St. Patrick8−48
11Gzira United8−114
12Birzebbuga8−141

The competition's standings before kick-off.