Valletta FC v Sliema Wanderers prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Valletta FC 2–1 Sliema Wanderers VALLETTA FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Valletta FC win~~41%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.517

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.391

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Valletta FC win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Valletta FC was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–32–27
1′KICK-OFF Valletta FC v Sliema Wanderers
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Valletta FC win 35%)
36′Much as we predicted: Valletta FC was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–41–24
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Sliema Wanderers
45′HALF-TIME Valletta FC 0–0 Sliema Wanderers
46′SECOND HALF Valletta FC 0–0 Sliema Wanderers
47′A red card for Sliema Wanderers on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 31–46–22
47′🟥 RED CARD · 45+2' Sliema Wanderers
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Valletta FC win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
52′We said Valletta FC at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–21
58′A goal for Valletta FC on 57′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Valletta FC 1–0 Sliema Wanderers
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Valletta FC win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Valletta FC win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
58′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sliema Wanderers · On: A. Overend · Off: N. Karelis
59′We published Valletta FC at 41%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
69′We published Valletta FC at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
70′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Valletta FC · On: Thaylor · Off: D. Tavares
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Valletta FC · On: M. Ellul · Off: M. Morello
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Valletta FC · On: M. Sylla · Off: R. Prsa
74′Sliema Wanderers score on 74′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 17–71–12
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Valletta FC 1–1 Sliema Wanderers
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Valletta FC win: 41% at kick-off, 17% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Valletta FC win 17%)
75′We said Valletta FC at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–1 · 16–72–12
75′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–1 · 16–72–12
75′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Valletta FC · On: K. Ewurum · Off: A. Zammit
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sliema Wanderers · On: C. Kouadio · Off: J. Borg
77′We said Valletta FC at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Valletta FC win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
82′We said Valletta FC at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–7
83′We said Valletta FC at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–85–6
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Valletta FC
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Sliema Wanderers
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Sliema Wanderers
88′Red cards for both sides: Valletta FC down to ten, Sliema Wanderers to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 5–91–4
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Valletta FC
89′We said Valletta FC at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Valletta FC
92′🟨 YELLOW · 88' B. Paiber · Valletta FC
94′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Y. Yankam · Valletta FC
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Valletta FC win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Sliema Wanderers
99′Valletta FC find the net on 90′. 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
99′We published Valletta FC at 41%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
99′⚽ GOAL · 90+9' Valletta FC 2–1 Sliema Wanderers
99′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+9' Valletta FC win: 41% at kick-off, 99% now
99′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+9' Valletta FC win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
100′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Valletta FC 2–1 Sliema Wanderers
FTValletta FC 2–1 Sliema Wanderers · Valletta FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Valletta FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Valletta FC 41%, draw 32%, Sliema Wanderers 27%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Valletta FC v Sliema WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Valletta FC win41%

Draw32%

Sliema Wanderers win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueTony Bezzina Stadium

RefereeF. Zammit

Line-ups

Valletta FC

Sliema Wanderers

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Valletta FC

Sliema Wanderers

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Valletta FC	7	+11	16
6	Sliema Wanderers	7	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Valletta FC

Formation not confirmed

90 Maringa Adilson

4 E. Bicakcic

8 A. Zammit

9 B. Gomes

10 B. Paiber

11 J. Azzopardi

19 D. Tavares

21 R. Prsa

33 E. Mbende

55 S. Radic

94 M. Morello

Coach · Thane Micallef

Substitutes

13 · L. Frendo

3 · M. Ellul

5 · S. Chetcuti

18 · M. Ancilleri

20 · Y. Yankam

32 · Alex Tanque

42 · M. Sylla

44 · N. Micallef

77 · Thaylor

80 · K. Ewurum

98 · Z. Formosa

Sliema Wanderers

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Bonello

2 J. Borg

11 B. Gambarte

15 Gustavo Alcino

17 A. Limbombe

19 N. Karelis

23 A. Satariano

28 V. Drobarov

29 I. Cojocaru

40 R. Polley

70 S. Pisani

Coach · Branko Nisevic

Substitutes

31 · F. Lauri

4 · D. Camara

5 · D. Zammit

7 · A. Overend

8 · M. Lorenzi

13 · G. Grima

14 · K. Grima

20 · E. Brincat Winters

30 · W. M. Alli

18 · C. Kouadio

33 · U. Hijazi

Our number · valletta fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market49%

Us41%

~~Market~~49%

We make Valletta FC a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Valletta FC v Sliema Wanderers~~1.22 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 21 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 11~~2 v 6

~~The market · Valletta FC win~~49% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Valletta FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Valletta FC win	41%	49%	−8
Draw	32%	29%	+3
Sliema Wanderers win	27%	22%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	37%	42%	−5
Both teams to score	43%	46%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	64%	66%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	17%	23%	−6
Valletta FC or draw	73%	78%	−5
Valletta FC clean sheet	40%	–	–
Sliema Wanderers clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 13.3 9.5 5.1 1 12.8 14.2 6.0 2 8.6 7.8 3.7 3 3.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Valletta FC down, Sliema Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 966 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Valletta FC at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sliema Wanderers away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Valletta FC, 0.93 for Sliema Wanderers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VAL 0–1 SLI · VAL 1–2 SLI · SLI 1–1 VAL · VAL 1–1 SLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 21 Aug

VALLETTA FC

WLWDWW3–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–0

SLIEMA WANDERERS

LWWWDD0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marsaxlokk	8	+5	17
2	Valletta FC	7	+11	16
3	Floriana	7	+9	14
4	Mosta	7	+2	12
5	Hamrun Spartans	7	+3	11
6	Sliema Wanderers	7	0	11
7	Balzan FC	7	+3	10
8	Birkirkara	8	+1	10
9	Hibernians	7	−5	6
10	Zabbar St. Patrick	7	−5	5
11	Gzira United	7	−11	3
12	Birzebbuga	7	−13	1