Valletta FC v Hamrun Spartans prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Valletta FCDrawHamrun Spartans

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Hamrun Spartans 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hamrun Spartans are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Valletta FC 29%, draw 32%, Hamrun Spartans 39%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Valletta FC v Hamrun SpartansBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Valletta FC win29%

Draw32%

Hamrun Spartans win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueTony Bezzina Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Valletta FC

Hamrun Spartans

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hamrun spartans winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

39% The market33%

Us39%

~~Market~~33%

We make Hamrun Spartans a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Valletta FC v Hamrun Spartans~~1.00 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 2 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 22 v 13~~1 v 5

~~The market · Hamrun Spartans win~~33% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hamrun Spartans win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Valletta FC win	29%	37%	−8
Draw	32%	30%	+2
Hamrun Spartans win	39%	33%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	37%	45%	−8
Both teams to score	45%	51%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	18%	26%	−8
Valletta FC or draw	61%	67%	−6
Valletta FC clean sheet	31%	–	–
Hamrun Spartans clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.9 12.0 7.9 3.2 1 9.8 14.3 7.7 3.1 2 5.6 6.5 3.8 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Valletta FC down, Hamrun Spartans across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 978 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Valletta FC at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hamrun Spartans away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Valletta FC, 1.19 for Hamrun Spartans. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VAL 0–2 HAM · VAL 2–1 HAM · VAL 1–1 HAM · VAL 0–0 HAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 2 Sept

VALLETTA FC

WDWWWW2–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

HAMRUN SPARTANS

WWWDDD2–1 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Valletta FC	9	+14	22
2	Marsaxlokk	10	+2	17
3	Sliema Wanderers	10	+1	17
4	Floriana	9	+9	16
5	Hamrun Spartans	9	+3	13
6	Mosta	9	0	13
7	Hibernians	9	−3	12
8	Balzan FC	9	+2	11
9	Birkirkara	9	+1	11
10	Zabbar St. Patrick	9	−5	8
11	Gzira United	9	−12	4
12	Birzebbuga	9	−12	4