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Sliema Wanderers v Marsaxlokk

Sliema Wanderers
2–1Full time
Marsaxlokk

Premier League · SAT 24 OCT · Tony Bezzina Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24
Sliema Wanderers 2–1 Marsaxlokk MARSAXLOKK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Marsaxlokk win38%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.689
The market’s Brier score0.566

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Marsaxlokk win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Marsaxlokk 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 32–29–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sliema Wanderers v Marsaxlokk
  4. 25′We said Marsaxlokk at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 65–22–14
  5. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Sliema Wanderers 1–0 Marsaxlokk
  6. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Marsaxlokk win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
  7. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Sliema Wanderers win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Marsaxlokk win 36%)
  8. 26′A goal for Sliema Wanderers on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–22–13
  9. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Sliema Wanderers 1–1 Marsaxlokk
  10. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Marsaxlokk win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
  11. 31′Marsaxlokk score on 30′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 30–36–34
  12. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Sliema Wanderers win 65%)
  13. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Sliema Wanderers
  14. 43′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 68–22–10
  15. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Sliema Wanderers 2–1 Marsaxlokk
  16. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Marsaxlokk win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
  17. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Sliema Wanderers win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 40%)
  18. 44′We said Marsaxlokk at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 68–22–9
  19. 44′Sliema Wanderers find the net on 44′. 2–1. 2–1 · 68–22–9
  20. 45′SECOND HALF Sliema Wanderers 2–1 Marsaxlokk
  21. 46′HALF-TIME Sliema Wanderers 2–1 Marsaxlokk
  22. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Marsaxlokk win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  23. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Sliema Wanderers
  24. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Marsaxlokk · On: Dodo · Off: S. Smajlagic
  25. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Marsaxlokk · On: M. Garcia · Off: D. Simkus
  26. 64′We said Marsaxlokk at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–19–4
  27. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sliema Wanderers · On: S. Pisani · Off: B. Gambarte
  28. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sliema Wanderers · On: W. M. Alli · Off: M. Awad
  29. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Marsaxlokk · On: I. Christie-Davies · Off: J. Minala
  30. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Sliema Wanderers · On: N. Robertha · Off: A. Limbombe
  31. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Marsaxlokk · On: T. Caruana · Off: N. Muscat
  32. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Marsaxlokk · On: Weder · Off: O. El Hasni
  33. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Marsaxlokk
  34. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Marsaxlokk
  35. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Sliema Wanderers · On: C. Kouadio · Off: T. Teuma
  36. 95′2–1 at the end. Our 38% on Marsaxlokk misses, and the record keeps it. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  37. FTFULL TIME Sliema Wanderers 2–1 Marsaxlokk
  38. FTSliema Wanderers 2–1 Marsaxlokk · Marsaxlokk win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marsaxlokk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sliema Wanderers 32%, draw 29%, Marsaxlokk 38%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Sliema Wanderers v MarsaxlokkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sliema Wanderers win32%
Draw29%
Marsaxlokk win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueTony Bezzina Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sliema Wanderers

Marsaxlokk

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Marsaxlokk9+317
4Sliema Wanderers9014

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marsaxlokk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
38% The market32%
Us38%
Market32%

We make Marsaxlokk a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sliema Wanderers v Marsaxlokk1.19 – 1.32
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 14 v 174 v 2
The market · Marsaxlokk win32% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 13:34
Our probability · Marsaxlokk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sliema Wanderers win32%39%−7
Draw29%29%0
Marsaxlokk win38%32%+6
Over 2.5 goals46%47%−1
Both teams to score52%53%−1
Over 1.5 goals72%70%+2
Over 3.5 goals25%28%−3
Sliema Wanderers or draw62%68%−6
Sliema Wanderers clean sheet27%––
Marsaxlokk clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%
0123450 9.7 9.4 7.0 3.2 1 8.5 13.7 8.1 3.6 2 5.8 7.4 4.8 2.2 3 2.4 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sliema Wanderers down, Marsaxlokk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.67
Over 2.52 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsMAR 1–1 SLI · SLI 0–0 MAR · SLI 1–1 MAR · MAR 2–1 SLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 Sept

SLIEMA WANDERERS

WWDDLW2–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–2

MARSAXLOKK

DWLWWL1–1 · 5–2 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Valletta FC9+1422
2Marsaxlokk9+317
3Floriana9+916
4Sliema Wanderers9014
5Hamrun Spartans9+313
6Mosta9013
7Hibernians9−312
8Balzan FC9+211
9Birkirkara9+111
10Zabbar St. Patrick9−58
11Gzira United9−124
12Birzebbuga9−124

The competition's standings before kick-off.