Sliema Wanderers v Gzira United prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Sliema Wanderers 1–1 Gzira United SLIEMA WANDERERS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sliema Wanderers win~~46%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.772

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.909

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sliema Wanderers win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sliema Wanderers 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
2′A goal for Sliema Wanderers on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
22′11′ and it is 1–1: A. Pllana on the scoresheet for Gzira United. 1–1 · 43–32–25
45′Little has changed for our model: Sliema Wanderers 46% before kick-off, 36% now. 1–1 · 36–42–22
50′We said Sliema Wanderers at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–45–21
70′We said Sliema Wanderers at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 22–63–15
86′We said Sliema Wanderers at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–1 · 6–90–4
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Sliema Wanderers win: 46% at kick-off, 22% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Sliema Wanderers win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Sliema Wanderers win: 46% at kick-off, 22% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gzira United · On: D. Farrugia · Off: B. Borg
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Sliema Wanderers win: 46% at kick-off, 22% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Sliema Wanderers win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Gzira United
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Sliema Wanderers win: 46% at kick-off, 22% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Sliema Wanderers win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Sliema Wanderers win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Sliema Wanderers win: 46% at kick-off, 22% now
FTFULL TIME Sliema Wanderers 1–1 Gzira United
FTSliema Wanderers 1–1 Gzira United · Sliema Wanderers win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sliema Wanderers win46%

Draw29%

Gzira United win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueTony Bezzina Stadium

Line-ups

Sliema Wanderers

Gzira United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sliema Wanderers

Gzira United

21Days since last match27

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Sliema Wanderers	6	0	10
11	Gzira United	5	−11	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sliema Wanderers

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Bonello

2 J. Borg

4 D. Camara

10 T. Teuma

11 B. Gambarte

17 A. Limbombe

23 A. Satariano

28 V. Drobarov

29 I. Cojocaru

30 W. M. Alli

40 R. Polley

Coach · Branko Nisevic

Substitutes

31 · F. Lauri

44 · E. Agu

3 · N. Micallef

7 · A. Overend

8 · M. Lorenzi

13 · U. Hijazi

14 · G. Grima

15 · Gustavo Alcino

19 · N. Karelis

20 · E. Brincat Winters

70 · S. Pisani

Gzira United

Formation not confirmed

33 E. Colombo

2 A. Pllana

3 G. Mentz

5 D. Abela

6 A. Borg

8 B. Borg

9 Andre

13 Joao Teixeira

27 F. Maio

30 D. Xuereb

44 Saldanha

Coach · Darren Abdilla

Substitutes

1 · K. Sargent

4 · N. Joyce

7 · Luisinho

11 · D. Farrugia

14 · D. Trakosopoulos

15 · J. Pena Serna

17 · A. De Flavia

22 · M. Van de Bovenkamp

23 · D. Djadjo

45 · M. Ange

77 · K. Pace

Our number · sliema wanderers winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

46% The market56%

Us46%

~~Market~~56%

We make Sliema Wanderers a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sliema wanderers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sliema Wanderers win	46%	56%	−11
Draw	29%	25%	+4
Gzira United win	25%	19%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	42%	49%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	49%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−7
Sliema Wanderers or draw	75%	81%	−7
Sliema Wanderers clean sheet	39%	–	–
Gzira United clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.9 8.0 4.4 1 12.0 13.5 6.0 2 9.1 8.6 4.2 3 4.3 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sliema Wanderers down, Gzira United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 961 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.38 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sliema Wanderers at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Gzira United away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Sliema Wanderers, 0.97 for Gzira United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SLI 2–1 GZI · SLI 2–0 GZI · SLI 0–1 GZI · GZI 2–2 SLI

Form · last six in Premier League

SLIEMA WANDERERS

LLWWWD0–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–0

GZIRA UNITED

LLLLLD0–1 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Valletta FC	7	+11	16
2	Marsaxlokk	7	+3	14
3	Floriana	6	+9	13
4	Mosta	6	+2	11
5	Birkirkara	7	+3	10
6	Hamrun Spartans	6	+3	10
7	Sliema Wanderers	6	0	10
8	Balzan FC	6	+3	9
9	Zabbar St. Patrick	7	−5	5
10	Hibernians	6	−5	5
11	Gzira United	5	−11	1
12	Birzebbuga	7	−13	1