Mosta v Valletta FC prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 22:01

Mosta 0–2 Valletta FC VALLETTA FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Valletta FC win~~57%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.278

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.244

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Valletta FC win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Valletta FC 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 18–25–57
1′KICK-OFF Mosta v Valletta FC
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Valletta FC
18′We said Valletta FC at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 6–13–81
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Mosta 0–1 Valletta FC
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Valletta FC win: 57% at kick-off, 81% now
20′Valletta FC ahead on 19′ through P. Sekulovic. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–13–81
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 5–14–81
45′SECOND HALF Mosta 0–1 Valletta FC
46′HALF-TIME Mosta 0–1 Valletta FC
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Valletta FC
61′We said Valletta FC at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
63′We said Valletta FC at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Mosta 0–2 Valletta FC
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Valletta FC win: 57% at kick-off, 98% now
64′A goal for Valletta FC on 63′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Valletta FC · On: M. Sylla · Off: R. Prsa
71′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Valletta FC · On: Alex Tanque · Off: B. Gomes
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Mosta · On: L. Attard · Off: Thiaguinho
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Mosta · On: B. Farrugia · Off: G. Acheampong
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Mosta · On: P. Ohaka · Off: P. Afriyie
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Valletta FC · On: K. Ewurum · Off: A. Zammit
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Mosta
79′We said Valletta FC at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Mosta · On: R. Debono · Off: N. Frendo
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Mosta
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Valletta FC · On: N. Micallef · Off: S. Radic
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Valletta FC · On: Y. Yankam · Off: J. Azzopardi
92′0–2 at the end. Our 57% on Valletta FC comes in. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Mosta 0–2 Valletta FC
FTMosta 0–2 Valletta FC · Valletta FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Valletta FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mosta 18%, draw 25%, Valletta FC 57%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Mosta v Valletta FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Mosta win18%

Draw25%

Valletta FC win57%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueTony Bezzina Stadium

Line-ups

Mosta

Valletta FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mosta

Valletta FC

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mosta

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Udoh

7 N. Portelli

10 Giancarlo

11 K. Zammit

13 E. Ebere

20 P. Afriyie

6 N. Frendo

30 N. Cross

42 Pedro Cacho

66 G. Acheampong

93 Thiaguinho

Coach · Joe Grech

Substitutes

4 · E. Ugwu

9 · P. Ohaka

14 · E. Agyiri

15 · L. Attard

16 · L. Chetcuti

19 · R. Debono

26 · O. Ezejiofor

29 · C. Oderinde

33 · B. Farrugia

94 · S. Vassallo

99 · J. Farrugia

Valletta FC

Formation not confirmed

90 Maringa Adilson

3 M. Ellul

4 E. Bicakcic

8 A. Zammit

9 B. Gomes

11 J. Azzopardi

19 D. Tavares

21 R. Prsa

23 P. Sekulovic

33 E. Mbende

55 S. Radic

Coach · Thane Micallef

Substitutes

13 · L. Frendo

5 · S. Chetcuti

18 · M. Ancilleri

20 · Y. Yankam

28 · K. Saliba

31 · M. Alahmar

32 · Alex Tanque

42 · M. Sylla

44 · N. Micallef

77 · Thaylor

80 · K. Ewurum

Our number · valletta fc winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

57% The market60%

Us57%

~~Market~~60%

We make Valletta FC a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mosta v Valletta FC~~0.92 – 1.83

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 19~~4 v 1

~~The market · Valletta FC win~~60% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Valletta FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mosta win	18%	16%	+2
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Valletta FC win	57%	60%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	50%	+1
Both teams to score	50%	48%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	72%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	29%	+1
Mosta or draw	43%	40%	+3
Mosta clean sheet	17%	–	–
Valletta FC clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.9 10.7 10.5 6.4 3.1 1 5.1 11.6 9.3 5.7 2.7 2 2.9 4.9 4.3 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mosta down, Valletta FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 971 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mosta at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Valletta FC away: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Mosta, 1.83 for Valletta FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MOS 0–5 VAL · VAL 4–1 MOS · MOS 1–0 VAL · MOS 2–1 VAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

MOSTA

WDLDDD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–3

VALLETTA FC

LWDWWW1–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Valletta FC	8	+12	19
2	Marsaxlokk	8	+5	17
3	Floriana	8	+9	15
4	Mosta	8	+2	13
5	Hamrun Spartans	8	+3	12
6	Sliema Wanderers	8	−1	11
7	Balzan FC	8	+2	10
8	Birkirkara	8	+1	10
9	Hibernians	8	−4	9
10	Zabbar St. Patrick	8	−4	8
11	Gzira United	8	−11	4
12	Birzebbuga	8	−14	1