Mosta v Hibernians prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MostaDrawHibernians

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Hibernians 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hibernians are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mosta 31%, draw 27%, Hibernians 42%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Mosta v HiberniansBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Mosta win31%

Draw27%

Hibernians win42%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueTony Bezzina Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mosta

Hibernians

5Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Mosta	9	0	13
7	Hibernians	9	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hibernians winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 22 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

42% The market46%

Us42%

~~Market~~46%

We make Hibernians a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mosta v Hibernians~~1.31 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 2 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 12~~6 v 7

~~The market · Hibernians win~~46% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hibernians win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mosta win	31%	28%	+3
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Hibernians win	42%	46%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	51%	+4
Both teams to score	58%	55%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	74%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	33%	30%	+3
Mosta or draw	58%	54%	+4
Mosta clean sheet	21%	–	–
Hibernians clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.1 7.7 6.9 3.7 1 6.3 12.5 8.8 4.6 2 4.8 7.4 5.7 3.0 3 2.1 3.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mosta down, Hibernians across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 977 Premier League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mosta at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hibernians away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Mosta, 1.58 for Hibernians. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HIB 2–0 MOS · HIB 1–0 MOS · HIB 0–2 MOS · MOS 2–2 HIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 2 Sept

MOSTA

DLDDDL1–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–2

HIBERNIANS

LDLDWW0–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Valletta FC	9	+14	22
2	Marsaxlokk	9	+3	17
3	Floriana	9	+9	16
4	Sliema Wanderers	9	0	14
5	Hamrun Spartans	9	+3	13
6	Mosta	9	0	13
7	Hibernians	9	−3	12
8	Balzan FC	9	+2	11
9	Birkirkara	9	+1	11
10	Zabbar St. Patrick	9	−5	8
11	Gzira United	9	−12	4
12	Birzebbuga	9	−12	4