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Mosta v Birzebbuga

Mosta

2–2Full time

Birzebbuga

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT · Victor Tedesco Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Mosta 2–2 Birzebbuga MOSTA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mosta win~~46%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.817

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mosta win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mosta 46% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
1′KICK-OFF Mosta v Birzebbuga
13′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Birzebbuga
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Mosta
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Birzebbuga
45′SECOND HALF Mosta 0–1 Birzebbuga
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Mosta 0–1 Birzebbuga
47′⚽ GOAL · 49' Mosta 0–1 Birzebbuga
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mosta · On: Wanderson Gotinha · Off: E. Agyiri
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Mosta 1–1 Birzebbuga · Yuri
52′⚽ GOAL · 53' Mosta 1–1 Birzebbuga
55′🟨 YELLOW · 15' J. A. Bolanos Ramirez · Birzebbuga
55′🟨 YELLOW · 35' K. Zammit · Mosta
55′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Alex Bruno · Birzebbuga
55′⚽ GOAL · 49' Mosta 1–1 Birzebbuga · Yuri
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mosta · On: Wanderson Gotinha · Off: E. Agyiri
55′⚽ GOAL · 53' Mosta 1–1 Birzebbuga
57′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Mosta
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Mosta 1–2 Birzebbuga · Giancarlo
65′⚽ GOAL · 66' Mosta 1–2 Birzebbuga
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Birzebbuga · On: L. Riascos · Off: R. Thellufsen
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Mosta
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Mosta
75′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Mosta
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Mosta
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Mosta 2–2 Birzebbuga · J. A. Bolanos Ramirez
81′⚽ GOAL · 82' Mosta 2–2 Birzebbuga
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Mosta 2–2 Birzebbuga
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Mosta · On: R. Debono · Off: G. Acheampong
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Mosta · On: B. Farrugia · Off: N. Frendo
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Mosta 3–2 Birzebbuga · N. Portelli
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' Mosta 3–2 Birzebbuga
FTFULL TIME Mosta 2–2 Birzebbuga
FTMosta 2–2 Birzebbuga · Mosta win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Mosta win46%

Draw27%

Birzebbuga win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Victor Tedesco Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Mosta

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Udoh

6 N. Frendo

7 N. Portelli

10 Giancarlo

11 K. Zammit

14 E. Agyiri

20 P. Afriyie

30 N. Cross

42 Pedro Cacho

66 G. Acheampong

93 Thiaguinho

Coach · Joe Grech

Substitutes

99 · J. Farrugia

8 · H. Ukpa

9 · P. Ohaka

13 · E. Ebere

15 · L. Attard

16 · L. Chetcuti

18 · A. Farrugia

19 · R. Debono

33 · B. Farrugia

94 · S. Vassallo

96 · Wanderson Gotinha

Birzebbuga

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Chiesa

2 Gustavo Felipe

5 Z. Cassar

7 S. Dimech

10 Yuri

18 R. Thellufsen

20 G. Costa Goncalves

25 J. A. Bolanos Ramirez

29 Alex Bruno

88 Z. Scerri

98 J. Mendoza

Coach · Kenneth Costantino

Substitutes

22 · J. Azzopardi

4 · M. Azzopardi

15 · S. Tokic

17 · J. Walker

19 · E. Grioli

21 · K. Bondin

23 · F. Galea

30 · L. Riascos

77 · A. Barbara

94 · D. Zerafa

11 · P. Tomaselli

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Mosta

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Udoh

6 N. Frendo

7 N. Portelli

10 Giancarlo

11 K. Zammit

14 E. Agyiri

20 P. Afriyie

30 N. Cross

42 Pedro Cacho

66 G. Acheampong

93 Thiaguinho

Coach · Joe Grech

Substitutes

99 · J. Farrugia

8 · H. Ukpa

9 · P. Ohaka

13 · E. Ebere

15 · L. Attard

16 · L. Chetcuti

18 · A. Farrugia

19 · R. Debono

33 · B. Farrugia

94 · S. Vassallo

96 · Wanderson Gotinha

Birzebbuga

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Chiesa

2 Gustavo Felipe

5 Z. Cassar

7 S. Dimech

10 Yuri

18 R. Thellufsen

20 G. Costa Goncalves

25 J. A. Bolanos Ramirez

29 Alex Bruno

88 Z. Scerri

98 J. Mendoza

Coach · Kenneth Costantino

Substitutes

22 · J. Azzopardi

4 · M. Azzopardi

15 · S. Tokic

17 · J. Walker

19 · E. Grioli

21 · K. Bondin

23 · F. Galea

30 · L. Riascos

77 · A. Barbara

94 · D. Zerafa

11 · P. Tomaselli

Our number · mosta winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

46% The market31%

Us46%

~~Market~~31%

We make Mosta a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mosta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 31% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mosta win	46%	31%	+15
Draw	27%	27%	0
Birzebbuga win	26%	42%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	50%	51%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
Mosta or draw	74%	58%	+15
Mosta clean sheet	33%	–	–
Birzebbuga clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 6.6 4.4 1 9.6 12.7 6.6 2.5 2 8.2 9.0 5.1 3 4.4 4.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mosta down, Birzebbuga across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 958 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.4% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Mosta at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Birzebbuga away: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Mosta, 1.12 for Birzebbuga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

MOSTA

WWWWDL1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

BIRZEBBUGA

LLLLLL0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Floriana	6	+9	13
2	Valletta FC	6	+9	13
3	Marsaxlokk	6	+2	11
4	Birkirkara	6	+5	10
5	Hamrun Spartans	6	+3	10
6	Mosta	5	+2	10
7	Sliema Wanderers	6	0	10
8	Balzan FC	6	+3	9
9	Zabbar St. Patrick	6	−4	5
10	Hibernians	6	−5	5
11	Gzira United	5	−11	1
12	Birzebbuga	6	−13	0