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Marsaxlokk v Zabbar St. Patrick

Marsaxlokk

2–1Full time

Zabbar St. Patrick

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Marsaxlokk 2–1 Zabbar St. Patrick MARSAXLOKK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Marsaxlokk win~~49%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.383

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.323

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Marsaxlokk win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Marsaxlokk was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
5′Much as we predicted: Marsaxlokk was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
28′J. Minala scores for Marsaxlokk on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Marsaxlokk win: 49% at kick-off, 47% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Marsaxlokk win: 49% at kick-off, 76% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Marsaxlokk win: 49% at kick-off, 76% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Marsaxlokk win: 49% at kick-off, 47% now
44′36′ and it is 2–0: Dodo on the scoresheet for Marsaxlokk. 2–0 · 94–5–1
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Marsaxlokk win: 49% at kick-off, 76% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Marsaxlokk win: 49% at kick-off, 47% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Marsaxlokk win: 49% at kick-off, 94% now
45′36′ and it is 2–0: Dodo on the scoresheet for Marsaxlokk. 2–0 · 95–5–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Marsaxlokk win: 49% at kick-off, 76% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Marsaxlokk win: 49% at kick-off, 94% now
45′HALF-TIME Marsaxlokk 2–0 Zabbar St. Patrick
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Marsaxlokk win: 49% at kick-off, 95% now
46′SECOND HALF Marsaxlokk 2–0 Zabbar St. Patrick
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Marsaxlokk win: 49% at kick-off, 95% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Zabbar St. Patrick · On: A. Agyeman · Off: M. Jovicic
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Marsaxlokk win: 49% at kick-off, 95% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Marsaxlokk win: 49% at kick-off, 95% now
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Zabbar St. Patrick · On: A. Agyeman · Off: M. Jovicic
58′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Zabbar St. Patrick · On: J. Micallef · Off: T. Melillo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Zabbar St. Patrick · On: M. Fontanella · Off: Vinicius Kanu
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Marsaxlokk
76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Zabbar St. Patrick · On: N. Agius · Off: N. Lancioni
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Zabbar St. Patrick
77′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Marsaxlokk · On: S. Smajlagic · Off: R. Linden
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Zabbar St. Patrick
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Marsaxlokk 2–1 Zabbar St. Patrick
FTFULL TIME Marsaxlokk 2–1 Zabbar St. Patrick
FTMarsaxlokk 2–1 Zabbar St. Patrick · Marsaxlokk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Marsaxlokk win49%

Draw26%

Zabbar St. Patrick win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Marsaxlokk

Formation not confirmed

22 C. Mafoumbi

4 O. El Hasni

5 E. Pepe

6 N. Muscat

8 U. Arias

9 R. Linden

10 Dodo

11 J. C. Corbalan

20 M. Garcia

25 J. Minala

27 L. Aguirre

Coach · Vincenzo Potenza

Substitutes

1 · A. Cassar

30 · Z. Carabott

3 · Weder

14 · E. Attard

16 · G. Karamitsios

17 · S. Smajlagic

23 · T. Caruana

24 · L. Caruana

26 · M. Maniscalco

28 · R. Mihana

33 · D. Simkus

Zabbar St. Patrick

Formation not confirmed

30 P. Mohorovic

2 K. Brucic

7 N. Lancioni

10 Joao Mafra

15 M. Jovicic

17 J. Pisani

18 P. F. Gouhon

21 S. Jovancic

22 Z. Leonardi

29 Vinicius Kanu

71 T. Melillo

Coach · Gilbert Agius

Substitutes

1 · S. Leon

4 · S. Magri

8 · C. M'Mombwa

11 · N. Agius

16 · J. Micallef

23 · Z. Polidano

33 · A. Agyeman

39 · A. Callus

70 · K. Fenech

77 · A. Ellard

89 · M. Fontanella

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Marsaxlokk

Formation not confirmed

22 C. Mafoumbi

4 O. El Hasni

5 E. Pepe

6 N. Muscat

8 U. Arias

9 R. Linden

10 Dodo

11 J. C. Corbalan

20 M. Garcia

25 J. Minala

27 L. Aguirre

Coach · Vincenzo Potenza

Substitutes

1 · A. Cassar

30 · Z. Carabott

3 · Weder

14 · E. Attard

16 · G. Karamitsios

17 · S. Smajlagic

23 · T. Caruana

24 · L. Caruana

26 · M. Maniscalco

28 · R. Mihana

33 · D. Simkus

Zabbar St. Patrick

Formation not confirmed

30 P. Mohorovic

2 K. Brucic

7 N. Lancioni

10 Joao Mafra

15 M. Jovicic

17 J. Pisani

18 P. F. Gouhon

21 S. Jovancic

22 Z. Leonardi

29 Vinicius Kanu

71 T. Melillo

Coach · Gilbert Agius

Substitutes

1 · S. Leon

4 · S. Magri

8 · C. M'Mombwa

11 · N. Agius

16 · J. Micallef

23 · Z. Polidano

33 · A. Agyeman

39 · A. Callus

70 · K. Fenech

77 · A. Ellard

89 · M. Fontanella

Our number · marsaxlokk winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

49% The market54%

Us49%

~~Market~~54%

We make Marsaxlokk a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · marsaxlokk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 54% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marsaxlokk win	49%	54%	−4
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Zabbar St. Patrick win	25%	21%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	53%	51%	+2
Both teams to score	55%	53%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	31%	0
Marsaxlokk or draw	75%	79%	−4
Marsaxlokk clean sheet	33%	–	–
Zabbar St. Patrick clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.3 5.8 3.9 1 9.1 12.2 6.3 2.4 2 8.5 9.2 5.2 3 4.8 5.3 2.9 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marsaxlokk down, Zabbar St. Patrick across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 959 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Marsaxlokk at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Zabbar St. Patrick away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Marsaxlokk, 1.13 for Zabbar St. Patrick. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ZAB 1–2 MAR · MAR 1–0 ZAB · MAR 3–1 ZAB · MAR 2–2 ZAB

Form · last six in Premier League

MARSAXLOKK

DWWDWL1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 1–4

ZABBAR ST. PATRICK

LWDLDL2–4 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Floriana	6	+9	13
2	Valletta FC	6	+9	13
3	Marsaxlokk	6	+2	11
4	Mosta	6	+2	11
5	Birkirkara	6	+5	10
6	Hamrun Spartans	6	+3	10
7	Sliema Wanderers	6	0	10
8	Balzan FC	6	+3	9
9	Zabbar St. Patrick	6	−4	5
10	Hibernians	6	−5	5
11	Gzira United	5	−11	1
12	Birzebbuga	7	−13	1