Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Premier League › Hibernians v Gzira United

Back
Malta flag

Hibernians v Gzira United

Hibernians
2–1Full time
Gzira United

Premier League · THU 22 OCT · Tony Bezzina Stadium

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 22:00
Hibernians 2–1 Gzira United HIBERNIANS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hibernians win39%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.568
The market’s Brier score0.418

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hibernians win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Hibernians 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hibernians v Gzira United
  4. 21′SUBSTITUTION · 15' Gzira United · On: Luisinho · Off: D. Xuereb
  5. 27′We said Hibernians at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
  6. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Hibernians 0–1 Gzira United
  7. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Hibernians win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
  8. 27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Gzira United win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Hibernians win 36%)
  9. 28′A goal for Gzira United on 28′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–22–65
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 13–22–65
  11. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Hibernians
  12. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Hibernians 1–1 Gzira United
  13. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Hibernians win: 39% at kick-off, 33% now
  14. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Gzira United win 67%)
  15. 41′Hibernians score on 41′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–38–29
  16. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 38' G. Mentz · Gzira United
  17. 47′HALF-TIME Hibernians 1–1 Gzira United
  18. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hibernians · On: B. Kristensen · Off: M. Ellul
  19. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gzira United · On: J. Farias · Off: B. Borg
  20. 53′SECOND HALF Hibernians 1–1 Gzira United
  21. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Hibernians win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  22. 59′We said Hibernians at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–49–24
  23. 60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' Gzira United
  24. 62′Gzira United are down to ten from 61′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 25–52–23
  25. 64′We said Hibernians at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–54–22
  26. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Hibernians
  27. 72′We said Hibernians at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–18
  28. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Hibernians win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  29. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hibernians · On: I. Chukunyere · Off: J. Roe
  30. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hibernians · On: J. Wahling · Off: D. Xuereb
  31. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hibernians · On: A. Sobczyk · Off: Matos
  32. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Hibernians win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  33. 84′We said Hibernians at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–84–7
  34. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Gzira United
  35. 85′We said Hibernians at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
  36. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Hibernians 2–1 Gzira United
  37. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Hibernians win: 39% at kick-off, 93% now
  38. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Hibernians win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 86%)
  39. 86′Hibernians find the net on 86′. 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
  40. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Hibernians · On: J. Degabriele · Off: M. El Fanis
  41. 87′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 94–6–0
  42. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gzira United · On: D. Farrugia · Off: Luisinho
  43. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Hibernians
  44. 89′We said Hibernians at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–4–0
  45. 89′Hibernians ahead on 85′ through I. Chukunyere. 2–1. 2–1 · 95–4–0
  46. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Hibernians win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
  47. 97′2–1 at the end. Our 39% on Hibernians comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  48. 97′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Gzira United · On: A. De Flavia · Off: A. Borg
  49. FTFULL TIME Hibernians 2–1 Gzira United
  50. FTHibernians 2–1 Gzira United · Hibernians win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hibernians are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hibernians 39%, draw 28%, Gzira United 33%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Hibernians v Gzira UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Hibernians win39%
Draw28%
Gzira United win33%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueTony Bezzina Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hibernians

Gzira United

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Hibernians8−49
11Gzira United8−114

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hibernians winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
39% The market47%
Us39%
Market47%

We make Hibernians a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hibernians v Gzira United1.39 – 1.28
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 AugW1 D3 L2 · W0 D4 L2
Table places · points 9 v 49 v 11
The market · Hibernians win47% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 19:09
Our probability · Hibernians win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hibernians win39%47%−8
Draw28%27%+1
Gzira United win33%25%+8
Over 2.5 goals50%48%+2
Both teams to score55%52%+3
Over 1.5 goals75%71%+4
Over 3.5 goals28%28%0
Hibernians or draw67%75%−8
Hibernians clean sheet29%––
Gzira United clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%
0123450 8.5 7.7 5.7 2.5 1 8.5 13.2 7.6 3.3 2 6.7 8.3 5.3 2.3 3 3.2 3.9 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hibernians down, Gzira United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.90
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsGZI 1–0 HIB · GZI 3–2 HIB · HIB 4–1 GZI · HIB 5–3 GZI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

HIBERNIANS

DLDLDW1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–0

GZIRA UNITED

LLDDDD1–2 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Valletta FC9+1422
2Marsaxlokk9+317
3Floriana8+915
4Sliema Wanderers9014
5Hamrun Spartans9+313
6Mosta9013
7Balzan FC9+211
8Birkirkara8+110
9Hibernians8−49
10Zabbar St. Patrick9−58
11Gzira United8−114
12Birzebbuga9−124

The competition's standings before kick-off.