Hamrun Spartans v Hibernians prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Hamrun Spartans 2–2 Hibernians HAMRUN SPARTANS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hamrun Spartans win~~60%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.952

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.969

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hamrun Spartans win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hamrun Spartans was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–16
1′KICK-OFF Hamrun Spartans v Hibernians
2′Much as we predicted: Hamrun Spartans was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–16
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Hamrun Spartans 1–0 Hibernians
17′14′ and it is 1–0: Hamrun Spartans have scored. 1–0 · 84–12–4
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Hamrun Spartans win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Hamrun Spartans win: 60% at kick-off, 61% now
19′14′ and it is 1–0: J. Grech on the scoresheet for Hamrun Spartans. 1–0 · 84–12–4
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Hamrun Spartans win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Hamrun Spartans win: 60% at kick-off, 61% now
34′We published Hamrun Spartans at 60%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–3
35′We published Hamrun Spartans at 60%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–3
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Hamrun Spartans 1–1 Hibernians
45′Hibernians find the net on 44′. 1–1. 1–1 · 46–38–16
45′HALF-TIME Hamrun Spartans 1–1 Hibernians
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hamrun Spartans win: 60% at kick-off, 46% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Hamrun Spartans win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
46′SECOND HALF Hamrun Spartans 1–1 Hibernians
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Hamrun Spartans win: 60% at kick-off, 46% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Hamrun Spartans win: 60% at kick-off, 46% now
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hamrun Spartans · On: G. Virano · Off: M. Guillaumier
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Hamrun Spartans 2–1 Hibernians
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Hamrun Spartans 2–1 Hibernians
63′⚽ GOAL · 61' Hamrun Spartans 2–1 Hibernians
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Hibernians
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Hibernians
70′⚽ GOAL · 16' Hamrun Spartans 2–1 Hibernians · J. Grech
70′⚽ GOAL · 44' Hamrun Spartans 2–1 Hibernians · M. Romling
70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hamrun Spartans · On: G. Virano · Off: M. Guillaumier
70′⚽ GOAL · 61' Hamrun Spartans 2–1 Hibernians · M. Trotta
70′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Hibernians
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Hamrun Spartans
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hibernians · On: F. Jankovic · Off: J. Wahling
79′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Hamrun Spartans · On: J. Ipalibo · Off: Rafael Compri
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Hamrun Spartans · On: S. Attard · Off: A. Coric
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Hamrun Spartans · On: D. Ceter · Off: M. Trotta
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Hamrun Spartans · On: D. Letherby · Off: Emerson
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Hibernians · On: Matos · Off: M. El Fanis
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Hamrun Spartans
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Hamrun Spartans 2–2 Hibernians
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Hamrun Spartans
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Hibernians
FTFULL TIME Hamrun Spartans 2–2 Hibernians
FTHamrun Spartans 2–2 Hibernians · Hamrun Spartans win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Hamrun Spartans win60%

Draw25%

Hibernians win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

VenueTony Bezzina Stadium

Line-ups

Hamrun Spartans

Hibernians

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hamrun Spartans

Hibernians

23Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Hamrun Spartans	6	+3	10
10	Hibernians	6	−5	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Hamrun Spartans

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Marchegiani

2 Rafael Compri

5 S. Xerri

6 M. Guillaumier

8 J. Grech

10 L. Villela

13 V. Polito

29 M. Trotta

88 A. Coric

91 Emerson

94 R. Camenzuli

Coach · Marco Amelia

Substitutes

92 · K. Brincau

98 · Celio

3 · I. Mizzi

7 · S. Attard

9 · D. Ceter

18 · J. Ipalibo

21 · D. Letherby

24 · S. Camilleri

25 · K. Hili

47 · G. Virano

55 · K. Scicluna

Hibernians

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Cardinali

3 M. Romling

4 S. Alfred

5 K. Shaw

7 J. Mbong

8 J. Wahling

14 D. Xuereb

23 M. Ellul

24 L. Lacunza

34 A. Sobczyk

47 M. El Fanis

Coach · Tugberk Tanrivermis

Substitutes

28 · P. Sanchez

6 · F. Jankovic

16 · A. Zammit

17 · I. Chukunyere

18 · Matos

19 · L. Abela

20 · J. Roe

21 · Agius

22 · D. Bonnici

44 · B. Flavell

77 · B. Druga

Our number · hamrun spartans winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

60% The market59%

Us60%

~~Market~~59%

We make Hamrun Spartans a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hamrun spartans win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hamrun Spartans win	60%	59%	+1
Draw	25%	23%	+1
Hibernians win	16%	18%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	53%	−5
Both teams to score	46%	52%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	33%	−6
Hamrun Spartans or draw	84%	82%	+2
Hamrun Spartans clean sheet	45%	–	–
Hibernians clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 8.7 5.1 2.5 1 12.3 11.4 4.3 2 11.8 9.2 3.8 3 7.2 5.6 2.3 4 3.4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hamrun Spartans down, Hibernians across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 961 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.17 goals a meeting; 5 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hamrun Spartans at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hibernians away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Hamrun Spartans, 0.80 for Hibernians. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 12

~~Both scored~~5 of 12

~~Last meetings~~HIB 0–1 HAM · HAM 2–0 HIB · HIB 1–2 HAM · HIB 0–3 HAM

Form · last six in Premier League

HAMRUN SPARTANS

LLDWWW0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 4–1

HIBERNIANS

WLDLDL2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Valletta FC	7	+11	16
2	Marsaxlokk	7	+3	14
3	Floriana	6	+9	13
4	Mosta	6	+2	11
5	Birkirkara	7	+3	10
6	Hamrun Spartans	6	+3	10
7	Sliema Wanderers	6	0	10
8	Balzan FC	6	+3	9
9	Zabbar St. Patrick	7	−5	5
10	Hibernians	6	−5	5
11	Gzira United	5	−11	1
12	Birzebbuga	7	−13	1