Gzira United v Hamrun Spartans

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hamrun Spartans win at 62%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Hamrun Spartans was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 14–24–61
3. 1′KICK-OFF Gzira United v Hamrun Spartans
4. 16′We published Hamrun Spartans at 62%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 4–11–85
5. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Gzira United 0–1 Hamrun Spartans
6. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Hamrun Spartans win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
7. 17′Hamrun Spartans score on 17′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–11–85
8. 22′18′: M. Trotta on the scoresheet for Hamrun Spartans, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–11–85
9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 3–12–85
10. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Hamrun Spartans
11. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Hamrun Spartans
12. 45′SECOND HALF Gzira United 1–1 Hamrun Spartans
13. 46′We said Hamrun Spartans at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 14–39–47
14. 46′Gzira United find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 14–39–47
15. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Gzira United 1–1 Hamrun Spartans
16. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Hamrun Spartans win: 62% at kick-off, 47% now
17. 48′HALF-TIME Gzira United 1–1 Hamrun Spartans
18. 51′We said Hamrun Spartans at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 14–42–44
19. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Hamrun Spartans · On: L. Villela · Off: D. Ceter
20. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Hamrun Spartans win: 62% at kick-off, 42% now
21. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Hamrun Spartans win 41%)
22. 57′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–11–87
23. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Gzira United 1–2 Hamrun Spartans
24. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Hamrun Spartans win: 62% at kick-off, 87% now
25. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Hamrun Spartans win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 11%)
26. 59′A goal for Hamrun Spartans on 58′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–11–87
27. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Hamrun Spartans · On: M. Caua de Aguiar Alves · Off: Emerson
28. 63′M. Trotta scores for Hamrun Spartans on 60′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
29. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Gzira United
30. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' A. Borg · Gzira United
31. 70′We published Hamrun Spartans at 62%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
32. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Gzira United · On: Luisinho · Off: D. Xuereb
33. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Hamrun Spartans win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
34. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hamrun Spartans · On: S. Attard · Off: A. Coric
35. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Hamrun Spartans
36. 82′We published Hamrun Spartans at 62%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
37. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Hamrun Spartans · On: M. Guillaumier · Off: G. Virano
38. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Gzira United · On: J. Pena Serna · Off: D. Abela
39. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Hamrun Spartans
40. 88′We said Hamrun Spartans at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 3–89–8
41. 88′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 3–89–8
42. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Gzira United 2–2 Hamrun Spartans
43. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Hamrun Spartans win: 62% at kick-off, 8% now
44. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Hamrun Spartans win 8%)
45. 89′Gzira United score on 89′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 3–91–7
46. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Gzira United · On: D. Farrugia · Off: B. Borg
47. 92′We said Hamrun Spartans at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 2–94–4
48. 94′88′: A. Pllana on the scoresheet for Gzira United, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 1–97–2
49. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Hamrun Spartans win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
50. 96′Full time, 2–2. We called Hamrun Spartans at 62% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–2 · 0–100–0
51. FTFULL TIME Gzira United 2–2 Hamrun Spartans
52. FTGzira United 2–2 Hamrun Spartans · Hamrun Spartans win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.