Floriana v Zabbar St. Patrick prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FlorianaDrawZabbar St. Patrick

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Floriana 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Floriana are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Floriana 61%, draw 23%, Zabbar St. Patrick 16%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Floriana v Zabbar St. PatrickBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Floriana win61%

Draw23%

Zabbar St. Patrick win16%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueTony Bezzina Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Floriana

Zabbar St. Patrick

4Days since last match5

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Malta)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Floriana	9	+9	16
10	Zabbar St. Patrick	9	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · floriana winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

61% The market58%

Us61%

~~Market~~58%

We make Floriana a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Floriana v Zabbar St. Patrick~~2.02 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 8~~3 v 10

~~The market · Floriana win~~58% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Floriana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Floriana win	61%	58%	+3
Draw	23%	23%	0
Zabbar St. Patrick win	16%	19%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Both teams to score	53%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	33%	+1
Floriana or draw	84%	81%	+3
Floriana clean sheet	40%	–	–
Zabbar St. Patrick clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 6.6 4.1 2.4 1 9.6 10.8 4.6 2 10.4 9.5 4.5 3 7.0 6.4 3.0 4 3.6 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Floriana down, Zabbar St. Patrick across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 977 Premier League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Floriana at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Zabbar St. Patrick away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Floriana, 0.94 for Zabbar St. Patrick. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ZAB 0–3 FLO · FLO 0–0 ZAB · FLO 3–1 ZAB · FLO 1–0 ZAB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 2 Sept

FLORIANA

WLWDDD4–1 · 2–5 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–1

ZABBAR ST. PATRICK

LDLLWL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Valletta FC	9	+14	22
2	Marsaxlokk	9	+3	17
3	Floriana	9	+9	16
4	Sliema Wanderers	9	0	14
5	Hamrun Spartans	9	+3	13
6	Mosta	9	0	13
7	Hibernians	9	−3	12
8	Balzan FC	9	+2	11
9	Birkirkara	9	+1	11
10	Zabbar St. Patrick	9	−5	8
11	Gzira United	9	−12	4
12	Birzebbuga	9	−12	4