Floriana v Mosta

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Floriana win at 65%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Floriana 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–22–14
3. 1′KICK-OFF Floriana v Mosta
4. 20′We said Floriana at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–10–4
5. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Mosta
6. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Floriana 1–0 Mosta
7. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Floriana win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
8. 22′A goal for Floriana on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–4
9. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Floriana 1–1 Mosta
10. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Floriana win: 65% at kick-off, 59% now
11. 26′Mosta score on 25′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 58–27–15
12. 33′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 85–11–3
13. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Mosta
14. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Floriana 2–1 Mosta
15. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Floriana win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
16. 34′Floriana find the net on 34′. 2–1. 2–1 · 85–11–3
17. 37′We said Floriana at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–1 · 97–3–1
18. 37′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–1
19. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Floriana 3–1 Mosta
20. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Floriana win: 65% at kick-off, 97% now
21. 38′A goal for Floriana on 38′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–1
22. 38′GOAL DISALLOWED · 38' Floriana
23. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Floriana win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
24. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Floriana
25. 45′SECOND HALF Floriana 3–1 Mosta
26. 47′A goal for Floriana on 45′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
27. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Floriana 3–1 Mosta
28. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Floriana win: 65% at kick-off, 97% now
29. 50′We said Floriana at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
30. 50′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
31. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Floriana 4–1 Mosta
32. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mosta · On: L. Attard · Off: G. Acheampong
33. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mosta · On: R. Debono · Off: P. Afriyie
34. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mosta · On: B. Farrugia · Off: Thiaguinho
35. 51′A goal for Floriana on 45′. 3–1 · 97–2–0
36. 51′HALF-TIME Floriana 3–1 Mosta
37. 51′GOAL DISALLOWED · 51' Floriana
38. 51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mosta · On: J. Farrugia · Off: A. Udoh
39. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Floriana · On: R. Muric · Off: K. Dervisagic
40. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Floriana
41. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Mosta
42. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Mosta · On: L. Chetcuti · Off: N. Frendo
43. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Floriana · On: E. Piscopo · Off: A. Kurtalic
44. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Floriana 3–2 Mosta
45. 89′Mosta score on 87′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 97–3–0
46. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Floriana · On: D. Vella · Off: C. Zammit Lonardelli Corrected
47. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Floriana · On: T. Gudelj · Off: S. Odey
48. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Floriana · On: N. Shchepetkin · Off: P. Mbong
49. 91′We said Floriana at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 3–3 · 6–92–2
50. 91′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 6–92–2
51. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Floriana 3–3 Mosta
52. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Floriana win: 65% at kick-off, 6% now
53. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Floriana win 6%)
54. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Floriana win: 65% at kick-off, 5% now
55. 93′Mosta find the net on 90′. 3–3. 3–3 · 3–95–1
56. 94′We said Floriana at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 3–3 · 2–97–1
57. FTFULL TIME Floriana 3–3 Mosta
58. FTFloriana 3–3 Mosta · Floriana win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.