Floriana v Balzan FC prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:33

Floriana 1–1 Balzan FC FLORIANA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Floriana win~~59%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.947

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.867

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Floriana win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Floriana 59% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–17
11′9′ and it is 0–1: Balzan FC have scored. 0–1 · 32–26–42
17′We said Floriana at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–27–44
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Floriana win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Balzan FC win 17%)
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Floriana win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Balzan FC win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Floriana win 29%)
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Floriana win: 59% at kick-off, 59% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Floriana win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Balzan FC win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Floriana win 29%)
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Floriana win: 59% at kick-off, 59% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Floriana win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Balzan FC win 17%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Floriana win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Balzan FC win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Floriana win 29%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Floriana win: 59% at kick-off, 59% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Floriana win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Balzan FC win 17%)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Floriana win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Balzan FC win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Floriana win 29%)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Floriana win: 59% at kick-off, 59% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Floriana win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Balzan FC win 17%)
24′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Balzan FC
25′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Floriana
44′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Floriana · On: A. Kurtalic · Off: A. Drina
44′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Floriana · On: S. Odey · Off: K. Dervisagic
44′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Floriana · On: P. Mbong · Off: R. Muric
45′SECOND HALF Floriana 0–1 Balzan FC
56′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Floriana
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Floriana · On: Y. Jbira · Off: T. Gudelj
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Balzan FC · On: M. Yahaya · Off: V. Kuach Yuel
71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Balzan FC · On: M. Yahaya · Off: V. Kuach Yuel
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Floriana 1–1 Balzan FC · A. Dimeji
76′⚽ GOAL · 77' Floriana 1–1 Balzan FC
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Balzan FC · On: A. Majok · Off: Macula
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Balzan FC · On: J. Portelli · Off: Ederson
FTFULL TIME Floriana 1–1 Balzan FC
FTFloriana 1–1 Balzan FC · Floriana win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Floriana win59%

Draw24%

Balzan FC win17%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:00

VenueVictor Tedesco Stadium

Line-ups

Floriana

Balzan FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Floriana

Balzan FC

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Floriana	6	+9	13
8	Balzan FC	6	+3	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Floriana

Formation not confirmed

23 G. Cioletti

3 M. Beerman

6 A. Drina

9 K. Dervisagic

10 F. Varela

11 R. Muric

12 D. Vella

16 Chapi

17 O. Spiteri

21 C. Zammit Lonardelli

22 T. Gudelj

Coach · Daniel Portela

Substitutes

80 · P. Picon

5 · G. Rodgers

14 · A. Kurtalic

20 · E. Piscopo

25 · G. Cassar

27 · Z. Newell

37 · Y. Jbira

86 · N. Shchepetkin

90 · S. Odey

99 · D. Attard

8 · P. Mbong

Balzan FC

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Ciappara

2 N. Djoric

7 V. Kuach Yuel

8 N. Pulis

11 Macula

14 A. Dimeji

17 S. Guehi

18 Ederson

21 Gabriel Santos

42 Z. Grech

96 Leo Fernandes

Coach · Andrew Cohen

Substitutes

99 · M. Djalo

4 · J. Portelli

5 · S. Arab

6 · J. Grech

9 · M. Yahaya

19 · L. Lapira

22 · K. Micallef

23 · S. Cipriott

24 · Z. Cassar

25 · V. Celic

80 · A. Majok

Our number · floriana winPublished 11 Oct 09:34

59% The market52%

Us59%

~~Market~~52%

We make Floriana a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · floriana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Floriana win	59%	52%	+7
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Balzan FC win	17%	22%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	28%	+1
Floriana or draw	83%	78%	+5
Floriana clean sheet	43%	–	–
Balzan FC clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.4%

0123450 8.2 5.0 2.6 1 11.4 11.4 4.5 2 11.1 9.3 4.0 3 6.8 5.7 2.5 4 3.3 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Floriana down, Balzan FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 961 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Floriana at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Balzan FC away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Floriana, 0.86 for Balzan FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BAL 0–0 FLO · FLO 3–0 BAL · FLO 2–2 BAL · BAL 0–3 FLO

Form · last six in Premier League

FLORIANA

WWDWLW3–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–5 · 4–0

BALZAN FC

DLWWDD1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Valletta FC	7	+11	16
2	Marsaxlokk	7	+3	14
3	Floriana	6	+9	13
4	Mosta	6	+2	11
5	Birkirkara	7	+3	10
6	Hamrun Spartans	6	+3	10
7	Sliema Wanderers	6	0	10
8	Balzan FC	6	+3	9
9	Zabbar St. Patrick	7	−5	5
10	Hibernians	6	−5	5
11	Gzira United	5	−11	1
12	Birzebbuga	7	−13	1