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Birkirkara v Valletta FC

Birkirkara

0–2Full time

Valletta FC

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Birkirkara 0–2 Valletta FC VALLETTA FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Valletta FC win~~40%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.541

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.542

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Valletta FC win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Valletta FC was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 28–30–41
1′KICK-OFF Birkirkara v Valletta FC
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Valletta FC win 34%)
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Birkirkara 0–1 Valletta FC
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Birkirkara 0–1 Valletta FC
45′SECOND HALF Birkirkara 0–1 Valletta FC
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Valletta FC
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Birkirkara · On: J. Vassallo · Off: Kadu
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Birkirkara · On: K. Reid · Off: Rafa Santos
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Birkirkara · On: J. Vassallo · Off: Kadu
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Valletta FC
59′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Valletta FC
64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Valletta FC · On: P. Sekulovic · Off: R. Prsa
68′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Valletta FC
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Birkirkara
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Birkirkara 0–2 Valletta FC · A. Zammit
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Valletta FC · On: K. Ewurum · Off: A. Zammit
73′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Birkirkara
73′⚽ GOAL · 74' Birkirkara 0–2 Valletta FC
76′⚽ GOAL · 74' Birkirkara 0–2 Valletta FC · P. Sekulovic
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Birkirkara
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Valletta FC
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Birkirkara
87′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Birkirkara
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Birkirkara
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Birkirkara
95′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Birkirkara
FTFULL TIME Birkirkara 0–2 Valletta FC
FTBirkirkara 0–2 Valletta FC · Valletta FC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Birkirkara win27%

Draw33%

Valletta FC win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Birkirkara

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Ondoa

3 Frazan

8 Rafa Santos

10 J. Busuttil

22 Z. Muscat

27 F. Sasere

28 S. Brewer

30 Pablo Gabriel

77 A. Garzia

97 Kadu

99 Amarildo

Coach · Paul Zammit

Substitutes

12 · K. Sammut

23 · D. El Hazawi

2 · I. Felice

9 · K. Reid

14 · Jefferson Vinicius

15 · K. Fenech

17 · L. Pahama

20 · J. Zahra

24 · B. Gill

74 · J. Vassallo

94 · Fernandinho

Valletta FC

Formation not confirmed

90 Maringa Adilson

4 E. Bicakcic

8 A. Zammit

9 B. Gomes

10 B. Paiber

11 J. Azzopardi

19 D. Tavares

21 R. Prsa

33 E. Mbende

55 S. Radic

94 M. Morello

Coach · Thane Micallef

Substitutes

13 · L. Frendo

3 · M. Ellul

5 · S. Chetcuti

18 · M. Ancilleri

20 · Y. Yankam

23 · P. Sekulovic

32 · Alex Tanque

44 · N. Micallef

77 · Thaylor

80 · K. Ewurum

98 · Z. Formosa

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Birkirkara

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Ondoa

3 Frazan

8 Rafa Santos

10 J. Busuttil

22 Z. Muscat

27 F. Sasere

28 S. Brewer

30 Pablo Gabriel

77 A. Garzia

97 Kadu

99 Amarildo

Coach · Paul Zammit

Substitutes

12 · K. Sammut

23 · D. El Hazawi

2 · I. Felice

9 · K. Reid

14 · Jefferson Vinicius

15 · K. Fenech

17 · L. Pahama

20 · J. Zahra

24 · B. Gill

74 · J. Vassallo

94 · Fernandinho

Valletta FC

Formation not confirmed

90 Maringa Adilson

4 E. Bicakcic

8 A. Zammit

9 B. Gomes

10 B. Paiber

11 J. Azzopardi

19 D. Tavares

21 R. Prsa

33 E. Mbende

55 S. Radic

94 M. Morello

Coach · Thane Micallef

Substitutes

13 · L. Frendo

3 · M. Ellul

5 · S. Chetcuti

18 · M. Ancilleri

20 · Y. Yankam

23 · P. Sekulovic

32 · Alex Tanque

44 · N. Micallef

77 · Thaylor

80 · K. Ewurum

98 · Z. Formosa

Our number · valletta fc winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

40% The market40%

Us40%

~~Market~~40%

We make Valletta FC a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · valletta fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Birkirkara win	27%	31%	−3
Draw	33%	30%	+3
Valletta FC win	40%	40%	0
Over 2.5 goals	33%	44%	−11
Both teams to score	41%	50%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	61%	69%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	15%	24%	−9
Birkirkara or draw	60%	60%	0
Birkirkara clean sheet	33%	–	–
Valletta FC clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.8%

0123450 14.8 13.7 8.5 3.3 1 10.5 14.1 7.3 2.8 2 5.3 5.8 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Birkirkara down, Valletta FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 959 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.44 goals a meeting; 1 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Birkirkara at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Valletta FC away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.89 goals for Birkirkara, 1.14 for Valletta FC. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.44

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~BIR 1–0 VAL · VAL 2–0 BIR · VAL 0–0 BIR · VAL 0–1 BIR

Form · last six in Premier League

BIRKIRKARA

WWLLDW4–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

VALLETTA FC

WWLWDW4–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Floriana	6	+9	13
2	Valletta FC	6	+9	13
3	Marsaxlokk	6	+2	11
4	Mosta	6	+2	11
5	Birkirkara	6	+5	10
6	Hamrun Spartans	6	+3	10
7	Sliema Wanderers	6	0	10
8	Balzan FC	6	+3	9
9	Zabbar St. Patrick	6	−4	5
10	Hibernians	6	−5	5
11	Gzira United	5	−11	1
12	Birzebbuga	7	−13	1