Zurrieq v Gudja United prediction · Challenge League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Zurrieq 1–0 Gudja United ZURRIEQ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zurrieq win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.548

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.458

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zurrieq win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Zurrieq 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–35
1′KICK-OFF Zurrieq v Gudja United
26′A goal for Zurrieq on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–21–11
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Zurrieq 1–0 Gudja United
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Zurrieq win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
27′We said Zurrieq at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–21–11
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–11
36′We said Zurrieq at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Zurrieq win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
45′HALF-TIME Zurrieq 1–0 Gudja United
46′SECOND HALF Zurrieq 1–0 Gudja United
56′We said Zurrieq at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
67′We said Zurrieq at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Zurrieq win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
76′We said Zurrieq at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
81′We said Zurrieq at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Zurrieq win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
88′We said Zurrieq at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Zurrieq 1–0 Gudja United
FTZurrieq 1–0 Gudja United · Zurrieq win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zurrieq are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zurrieq 40%, draw 25%, Gudja United 35%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Zurrieq v Gudja UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Zurrieq win40%

Draw25%

Gudja United win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zurrieq

Gudja United

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Zurrieq	3	−2	1
16	Gudja United	3	−6	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zurrieq winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Zurrieq a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zurrieq v Gudja United~~1.38 – 1.27

~~Form · Challenge League this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L2 · W0 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 1 v 0~~15 v 16

~~The market · Zurrieq win~~45% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zurrieq win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zurrieq win	40%	45%	−5
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Gudja United win	35%	29%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	30%	−2
Zurrieq or draw	65%	71%	−6
Zurrieq clean sheet	29%	–	–
Gudja United clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.3 9.4 5.7 2.5 1 10.2 11.8 7.6 3.3 2 6.7 8.2 5.2 2.2 3 3.1 3.8 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zurrieq down, Gudja United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,042 Challenge League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zurrieq at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gudja United away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Zurrieq, 1.27 for Gudja United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GUD 0–3 ZUR · GUD 1–0 ZUR · GUD 1–3 ZUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Challenge League this season · since 12 Sept

ZURRIEQ

LLD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

GUDJA UNITED

LLL0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tarxien Rainbows	3	+6	9
2	Fgura United	3	+7	7
3	Naxxar Lions	3	+2	6
4	Victoria Hotspurs	3	+1	6
5	Mgarr United	3	+1	6
6	Melita	3	+2	4
7	Swieqi United	3	0	4
8	Sirens	3	0	4
9	Vittoriosa Stars	3	0	4
10	St. Andrews	3	−2	4
11	Santa Lucía	3	0	3
12	Pietà Hotspurs	3	−2	3
13	Zebbug Rangers	3	−5	3
14	Attard	3	−2	2
15	Zurrieq	3	−2	1
16	Gudja United	3	−6	0