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Zebbug Rangers v Swieqi United

Zebbug Rangers

1–0Full time

Swieqi United

Challenge League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Zebbug Rangers 1–0 Swieqi United SWIEQI UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Swieqi United win~~68%

~~The market said~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.204

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.548

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Swieqi United win at 68%.
2′KICK-OFF Zebbug Rangers v Swieqi United
4′Little has changed for our model: Swieqi United 68% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 14–17–68
44′We said Swieqi United at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 16–29–55
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Swieqi United win: 68% at kick-off, 55% now
45′HALF-TIME Zebbug Rangers 0–0 Swieqi United
49′Zebbug Rangers find the net on 53′. 0–0. 0–0 · 16–32–53
49′SECOND HALF Zebbug Rangers 0–0 Swieqi United
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Zebbug Rangers 1–0 Swieqi United
71′Zebbug Rangers ahead on 54′ through I. Chetcuti. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–27–8
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Swieqi United win: 68% at kick-off, 8% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Zebbug Rangers win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Swieqi United win 8%)
89′⚽ GOAL · 54' Zebbug Rangers 1–0 Swieqi United · I. Chetcuti
90′We said Swieqi United at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Zebbug Rangers 1–0 Swieqi United
FTZebbug Rangers 1–0 Swieqi United · Swieqi United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zebbug Rangers win15%

Draw17%

Swieqi United win68%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · swieqi united winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

68% The market80%

Us68%

~~Market~~80%

We make Swieqi United a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 80%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · swieqi united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 80% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zebbug Rangers win	15%	6%	+9
Draw	17%	14%	+3
Swieqi United win	68%	80%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	69%	67%	+2
Both teams to score	59%	42%	+17
Over 1.5 goals	86%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	48%	48%	0
Zebbug Rangers or draw	32%	20%	+13
Zebbug Rangers clean sheet	9%	–	–
Swieqi United clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.8%

0123450 2.9 7.3 8.4 7.0 4.5 2.51 3.5 7.3 8.8 7.2 4.6 2.52 4.1 4.8 3.9 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zebbug Rangers down, Swieqi United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,034 Challenge League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zebbug Rangers at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Swieqi United away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Zebbug Rangers, 2.55 for Swieqi United. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SWI 3–1 ZEB · SWI 3–2 ZEB · SWI 3–1 ZEB · SWI 0–1 ZEB

Form · last six in Challenge League

ZEBBUG RANGERS

DWWDLL3–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–3

SWIEQI UNITED

WWDDDW5–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tarxien Rainbows	2	+4	6
2	Victoria Hotspurs	2	+4	6
3	Fgura United	2	+4	4
4	Vittoriosa Stars	2	+2	4
5	Swieqi United	2	+1	4
6	Sirens	2	+1	4
7	Melita	2	+2	3
8	Naxxar Lions	2	+1	3
9	Pietà Hotspurs	2	0	3
10	Mgarr United	2	−1	3
11	Santa Lucía	2	0	2
12	Attard	2	−2	1
13	St. Andrews	2	−3	1
14	Zurrieq	2	−2	0
15	Gudja United	2	−5	0
16	Zebbug Rangers	2	−6	0