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Zebbug Rangers v Melita

Zebbug Rangers
1–2Full time
Melita

Challenge League · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:01
Zebbug Rangers 1–2 Melita MELITA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Melita win60%
The market said65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.237
The market’s Brier score0.184

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Melita win at 60%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Zebbug Rangers v Melita
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Melita 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 19–21–60
  4. 32′Melita find the net on 32′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–14–81
  5. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Zebbug Rangers 0–1 Melita
  6. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Melita win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
  7. 33′We said Melita at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 5–14–81
  8. 34′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 5–14–81
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Zebbug Rangers 0–1 Melita
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Zebbug Rangers 0–1 Melita
  11. 65′We said Melita at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
  12. 78′A goal for Melita on 77′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  13. 78′We said Melita at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  14. 78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Zebbug Rangers 0–2 Melita
  15. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Melita win: 60% at kick-off, 99% now
  16. 81′We said Melita at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  17. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Melita win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
  18. 82′K. Mohnani scores for Melita on 78′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  19. 92′Zebbug Rangers score on 90′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
  20. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Zebbug Rangers 1–2 Melita
  21. FTFULL TIME Zebbug Rangers 1–2 Melita
  22. FTZebbug Rangers 1–2 Melita · Melita win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Melita are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zebbug Rangers 19%, draw 20%, Melita 60%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Zebbug Rangers v MelitaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Zebbug Rangers win19%
Draw20%
Melita win60%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:15

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zebbug Rangers

Melita

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)

Last match: 17 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Melita404
15Zebbug Rangers4−63

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · melita winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
60% The market65%
Us60%
Market65%

We make Melita a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Zebbug Rangers v Melita1.03 – 2.03
Form · Challenge League this season · since 13 SeptW1 D0 L3 · W1 D1 L2
Table places · points 3 v 415 v 9
The market · Melita win65% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 16:43
Our probability · Melita win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Zebbug Rangers win19%14%+5
Draw20%21%−1
Melita win60%65%−5
Over 2.5 goals58%54%+4
Both teams to score54%49%+5
Over 1.5 goals80%76%+4
Over 3.5 goals37%34%+3
Zebbug Rangers or draw40%35%+5
Zebbug Rangers clean sheet14%––
Melita clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 9.9%
0123450 4.8 9.9 9.6 6.5 3.4 1 5.3 9.4 9.5 6.4 3.3 2 2.6 5.0 4.9 3.3 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Zebbug Rangers down, Melita across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsZEB 1–4 MEL · MEL 2–1 ZEB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Challenge League this season · since 13 Sept

ZEBBUG RANGERS

LLWL0–4 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–2

MELITA

WLDL3–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tarxien Rainbows4+712
2Naxxar Lions4+39
3Mgarr United4+39
4Fgura United4+78
5Swieqi United4+17
6Pietà Hotspurs406
7Victoria Hotspurs406
8Vittoriosa Stars405
9Melita404
10Santa Lucía404
11Sirens4−14
12Zurrieq4−14
13St. Andrews4−44
14Attard4−23
15Zebbug Rangers4−63
16Gudja United4−70

The competition's standings before kick-off.