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Tarxien Rainbows v Zebbug Rangers

Tarxien Rainbows

2–1Full time

Zebbug Rangers

Challenge League · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Tarxien Rainbows 2–1 Zebbug Rangers TARXIEN RAINBOWS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tarxien Rainbows win~~63%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.201

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.130

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tarxien Rainbows win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tarxien Rainbows 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–20–17
1′KICK-OFF Tarxien Rainbows v Zebbug Rangers
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Tarxien Rainbows win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
41′We said Tarxien Rainbows at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 51–32–17
45′We said Tarxien Rainbows at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–34–17
45′HALF-TIME Tarxien Rainbows 0–0 Zebbug Rangers
47′SECOND HALF Tarxien Rainbows 0–0 Zebbug Rangers
55′We said Tarxien Rainbows at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–40–16
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 44–40–16
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Tarxien Rainbows win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Tarxien Rainbows win 40%)
62′We said Tarxien Rainbows at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–46–15
66′Zebbug Rangers score on 66′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–26–64
66′We said Tarxien Rainbows at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–64
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Tarxien Rainbows 0–1 Zebbug Rangers
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Tarxien Rainbows win: 63% at kick-off, 9% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Zebbug Rangers win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Draw 26%)
75′We said Tarxien Rainbows at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–22–74
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Tarxien Rainbows win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
92′Tarxien Rainbows find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 5–93–2
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Tarxien Rainbows 1–1 Zebbug Rangers
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Zebbug Rangers win 2%)
97′A goal for Tarxien Rainbows on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
97′We said Tarxien Rainbows at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Tarxien Rainbows 2–1 Zebbug Rangers
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+7' Tarxien Rainbows win: 63% at kick-off, 99% now
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Tarxien Rainbows win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
98′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 2–1 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Tarxien Rainbows 2–1 Zebbug Rangers
FTTarxien Rainbows 2–1 Zebbug Rangers · Tarxien Rainbows win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tarxien Rainbows are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tarxien Rainbows 63%, draw 20%, Zebbug Rangers 17%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Tarxien Rainbows v Zebbug RangersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tarxien Rainbows win63%

Draw20%

Zebbug Rangers win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tarxien Rainbows

Zebbug Rangers

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)

Last match: 10 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tarxien rainbows winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market71%

Us63%

~~Market~~71%

We make Tarxien Rainbows a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tarxien Rainbows v Zebbug Rangers~~2.13 – 0.95

~~Form · Challenge League this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 3~~1 v 14

~~The market · Tarxien Rainbows win~~71% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tarxien Rainbows win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tarxien Rainbows win	63%	71%	−8
Draw	20%	19%	+1
Zebbug Rangers win	17%	10%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	58%	59%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	48%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	39%	−2
Tarxien Rainbows or draw	83%	90%	−7
Tarxien Rainbows clean sheet	40%	–	–
Zebbug Rangers clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.2%

0123450 4.9 4.9 2.3 1 10.2 9.0 4.5 2 10.2 9.3 4.4 3 7.2 6.4 3.1 4 4.0 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tarxien Rainbows down, Zebbug Rangers across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,046 Challenge League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tarxien Rainbows at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zebbug Rangers away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.13 goals for Tarxien Rainbows, 0.95 for Zebbug Rangers. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TAR 0–2 ZEB · TAR 3–1 ZEB · TAR 1–2 ZEB · ZEB 0–0 TAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Challenge League this season · since 13 Sept

TARXIEN RAINBOWS

WWW3–1 · 3–1 · 3–1

ZEBBUG RANGERS

LLW0–4 · 1–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tarxien Rainbows	3	+6	9
2	Mgarr United	4	+3	9
3	Fgura United	4	+7	8
4	Naxxar Lions	3	+2	6
5	Victoria Hotspurs	3	+1	6
6	Pietà Hotspurs	4	0	6
7	Swieqi United	3	0	4
8	Melita	4	0	4
9	Sirens	3	0	4
10	Vittoriosa Stars	3	0	4
11	Santa Lucía	4	0	4
12	Zurrieq	4	−1	4
13	St. Andrews	4	−4	4
14	Zebbug Rangers	3	−5	3
15	Attard	3	−2	2
16	Gudja United	4	−7	0