St. Andrews v Mgarr United prediction · Challenge League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

St. Andrews 0–2 Mgarr United MGARR UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mgarr United win~~45%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.448

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.489

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mgarr United win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mgarr United 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 30–24–45
1′KICK-OFF St. Andrews v Mgarr United
41′Mgarr United score on 41′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–73
41′We said Mgarr United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 7–19–73
41′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–73
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' St. Andrews 0–1 Mgarr United
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Mgarr United win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME St. Andrews 0–1 Mgarr United
46′SECOND HALF St. Andrews 0–1 Mgarr United
47′We said Mgarr United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Mgarr United win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
64′We said Mgarr United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
74′We said Mgarr United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Mgarr United win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
81′We said Mgarr United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
87′We said Mgarr United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Mgarr United win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
93′Mgarr United find the net on 90′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' St. Andrews 0–2 Mgarr United
94′We said Mgarr United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME St. Andrews 0–2 Mgarr United
FTSt. Andrews 0–2 Mgarr United · Mgarr United win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mgarr United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: St. Andrews 30%, draw 24%, Mgarr United 45%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on St. Andrews v Mgarr UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

St. Andrews win30%

Draw24%

Mgarr United win45%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

St. Andrews

Mgarr United

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)

Last match: 10 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Mgarr United	3	+1	6
10	St. Andrews	3	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mgarr united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

45% The market43%

Us45%

~~Market~~43%

We make Mgarr United a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · St. Andrews v Mgarr United~~1.22 – 1.56

~~Form · Challenge League this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~10 v 5

~~The market · Mgarr United win~~43% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mgarr United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
St. Andrews win	30%	30%	0
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Mgarr United win	45%	43%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	55%	−3
Both teams to score	54%	59%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
St. Andrews or draw	55%	57%	−2
St. Andrews clean sheet	22%	–	–
Mgarr United clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.3 10.0 7.5 4.0 1 7.9 11.2 8.8 4.7 2 4.7 7.0 5.4 2.8 3 2.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+St. Andrews down, Mgarr United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,042 Challenge League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

St. Andrews at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mgarr United away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for St. Andrews, 1.56 for Mgarr United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~STA 0–4 MGA · MGA 2–1 STA · STA 2–0 MGA · MGA 1–4 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Challenge League this season · since 13 Sept

ST. ANDREWS

LDW0–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

MGARR UNITED

LWW1–3 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tarxien Rainbows	3	+6	9
2	Fgura United	3	+7	7
3	Naxxar Lions	3	+2	6
4	Victoria Hotspurs	3	+1	6
5	Mgarr United	3	+1	6
6	Melita	3	+2	4
7	Swieqi United	3	0	4
8	Sirens	3	0	4
9	Vittoriosa Stars	3	0	4
10	St. Andrews	3	−2	4
11	Santa Lucía	3	0	3
12	Pietà Hotspurs	3	−2	3
13	Zebbug Rangers	3	−5	3
14	Attard	3	−2	2
15	Zurrieq	3	−2	1
16	Gudja United	3	−6	0