Sirens v Tarxien Rainbows prediction · Challenge League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Sirens 1–2 Tarxien Rainbows TARXIEN RAINBOWS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tarxien Rainbows win~~45%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.465

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.390

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tarxien Rainbows win at 45%.
2′Much as we predicted: Tarxien Rainbows was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 33–22–44
2′KICK-OFF Sirens v Tarxien Rainbows
35′Sirens score on 34′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 61–23–16
35′We said Tarxien Rainbows at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 61–23–16
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Sirens 1–0 Tarxien Rainbows
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Tarxien Rainbows win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Sirens win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Tarxien Rainbows win 39%)
36′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 61–23–16
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Tarxien Rainbows win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
41′We said Tarxien Rainbows at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
45′HALF-TIME Sirens 1–0 Tarxien Rainbows
46′SECOND HALF Sirens 1–0 Tarxien Rainbows
50′Tarxien Rainbows find the net on 49′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–37–35
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Sirens 1–1 Tarxien Rainbows
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Tarxien Rainbows win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Sirens win 65%)
54′We said Tarxien Rainbows at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 27–40–33
63′We said Tarxien Rainbows at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 24–47–29
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Tarxien Rainbows win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
71′We said Tarxien Rainbows at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 20–56–24
80′A goal for Tarxien Rainbows on 80′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–12–87
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Tarxien Rainbows win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Sirens 1–2 Tarxien Rainbows
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Tarxien Rainbows win: 45% at kick-off, 87% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Tarxien Rainbows win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 72%)
81′We published Tarxien Rainbows at 45%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–2 · 1–11–88
83′We published Tarxien Rainbows at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
89′We published Tarxien Rainbows at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Tarxien Rainbows win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Sirens 1–2 Tarxien Rainbows
FTSirens 1–2 Tarxien Rainbows · Tarxien Rainbows win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tarxien Rainbows are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sirens 33%, draw 22%, Tarxien Rainbows 45%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Sirens v Tarxien RainbowsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sirens win33%

Draw22%

Tarxien Rainbows win45%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sirens

Tarxien Rainbows

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tarxien rainbows winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:07 · locked at kick-off

45% The market49%

Us45%

~~Market~~49%

We make Tarxien Rainbows a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sirens v Tarxien Rainbows~~1.48 – 1.77

~~Form · Challenge League this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 12~~12 v 1

~~The market · Tarxien Rainbows win~~49% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tarxien Rainbows win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sirens win	33%	26%	+7
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Tarxien Rainbows win	45%	49%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	62%	56%	+6
Both teams to score	62%	58%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	41%	35%	+6
Sirens or draw	55%	51%	+4
Sirens clean sheet	18%	–	–
Tarxien Rainbows clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.0 7.4 6.1 3.6 1 6.3 9.7 8.6 5.0 2.3 2 4.4 7.3 6.2 3.7 3 2.2 3.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sirens down, Tarxien Rainbows across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,052 Challenge League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sirens at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tarxien Rainbows away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Sirens, 1.77 for Tarxien Rainbows. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SIR 3–4 TAR · TAR 2–1 SIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Challenge League this season · since 12 Sept

SIRENS

WDLL1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–3

TARXIEN RAINBOWS

WWWW3–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tarxien Rainbows	4	+7	12
2	Naxxar Lions	4	+3	9
3	Mgarr United	4	+3	9
4	Fgura United	4	+7	8
5	Swieqi United	4	+1	7
6	Melita	5	+1	7
7	St. Andrews	5	−3	7
8	Pietà Hotspurs	4	0	6
9	Victoria Hotspurs	4	0	6
10	Vittoriosa Stars	4	0	5
11	Santa Lucía	4	0	4
12	Sirens	4	−1	4
13	Zurrieq	4	−1	4
14	Attard	5	−3	3
15	Zebbug Rangers	5	−7	3
16	Gudja United	4	−7	0