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Santa Lucía v Zurrieq

Santa Lucía

1–1Full time

Zurrieq

Challenge League · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Santa Lucía 1–1 Zurrieq SANTA LUCÍA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Santa Lucía win~~45%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.904

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.886

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santa Lucía win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Santa Lucía was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–32
4′Much as we predicted: Santa Lucía was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–32
21′S. Grech scores for Zurrieq on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–23–59
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Santa Lucía win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Zurrieq win 32%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Santa Lucía win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Zurrieq win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Santa Lucía win 19%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Santa Lucía win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Santa Lucía win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Santa Lucía win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Zurrieq win 32%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Santa Lucía win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Zurrieq win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Santa Lucía win 19%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Santa Lucía win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Zurrieq win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Santa Lucía win 19%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Santa Lucía win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Santa Lucía win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Zurrieq win 32%)
25′S. Grech scores for Zurrieq on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Santa Lucía win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Zurrieq win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Santa Lucía win 19%)
45′We said Santa Lucía at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–24–64
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Santa Lucía win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Santa Lucía win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
45′HALF-TIME Santa Lucía 0–1 Zurrieq
46′SECOND HALF Santa Lucía 0–1 Zurrieq
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Santa Lucía win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Zurrieq win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Santa Lucía win 12%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Santa Lucía win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Zurrieq win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Santa Lucía win 12%)
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Santa Lucía 1–1 Zurrieq
FTFULL TIME Santa Lucía 1–1 Zurrieq
FTSanta Lucía 1–1 Zurrieq · Santa Lucía win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Santa Lucía win45%

Draw23%

Zurrieq win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Santa Lucía

Zurrieq

23Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Santa Lucía	2	0	2
15	Zurrieq	2	−2	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santa lucía winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

45% The market51%

Us45%

~~Market~~51%

We make Santa Lucía a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · santa lucía win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santa Lucía win	45%	51%	−7
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Zurrieq win	33%	24%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	60%	57%	+2
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	37%	+1
Santa Lucía or draw	67%	76%	−9
Santa Lucía clean sheet	25%	–	–
Zurrieq clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.5 6.8 4.5 2.2 1 8.1 10.2 7.3 3.5 2 6.4 8.7 6.1 2.9 3 3.7 4.9 3.5 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santa Lucía down, Zurrieq across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,038 Challenge League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santa Lucía at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Zurrieq away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Santa Lucía, 1.42 for Zurrieq. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAN 3–0 ZUR · ZUR 4–0 SAN · SAN 3–6 ZUR · SAN 2–0 ZUR

Form · last six in Challenge League

SANTA LUCÍA

LDWWDD0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

ZURRIEQ

DWLWLL3–3 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Fgura United	3	+7	7
2	Tarxien Rainbows	2	+4	6
3	Naxxar Lions	3	+2	6
4	Mgarr United	3	+1	6
5	Victoria Hotspurs	3	+1	6
6	Swieqi United	3	0	4
7	Sirens	3	0	4
8	Vittoriosa Stars	3	0	4
9	Melita	2	+2	3
10	Pietà Hotspurs	2	0	3
11	Zebbug Rangers	3	−5	3
12	Santa Lucía	2	0	2
13	Attard	2	−2	1
14	St. Andrews	2	−3	1
15	Zurrieq	2	−2	0
16	Gudja United	2	−5	0