Santa Lucía v Naxxar Lions prediction · Challenge League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:46

Santa Lucía 1–1 Naxxar Lions NAXXAR LIONS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Naxxar Lions win~~49%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.932

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.864

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Naxxar Lions win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Naxxar Lions was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 30–22–48
1′KICK-OFF Santa Lucía v Naxxar Lions
42′Santa Lucía find the net on 42′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–24–16
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Santa Lucía 1–0 Naxxar Lions
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Naxxar Lions win: 49% at kick-off, 16% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Santa Lucía win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Naxxar Lions win 40%)
43′We said Naxxar Lions at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 60–24–15
45′HALF-TIME Santa Lucía 1–0 Naxxar Lions
46′We said Naxxar Lions at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
46′SECOND HALF Santa Lucía 1–0 Naxxar Lions
59′We said Naxxar Lions at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Naxxar Lions win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
72′We said Naxxar Lions at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
77′A goal for Naxxar Lions on 76′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 14–67–19
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Santa Lucía 1–1 Naxxar Lions
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Naxxar Lions win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Santa Lucía win 79%)
78′GOAL DISALLOWED · 78' Naxxar Lions
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Naxxar Lions win: 49% at kick-off, 2% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Santa Lucía win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 67%)
97′A goal for Naxxar Lions on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 1–97–2
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Santa Lucía 1–1 Naxxar Lions
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Santa Lucía win 98%)
FTFULL TIME Santa Lucía 1–1 Naxxar Lions
FTSanta Lucía 1–1 Naxxar Lions · Naxxar Lions win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Naxxar Lions are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santa Lucía 30%, draw 22%, Naxxar Lions 49%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Santa Lucía v Naxxar LionsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

Santa Lucía win30%

Draw22%

Naxxar Lions win49%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santa Lucía

Naxxar Lions

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)

Last match: 18 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Naxxar Lions	4	+3	9
11	Santa Lucía	4	0	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · naxxar lions winFirst published 18 Oct 03:48 · updated 24 Oct 04:07 · locked at kick-off

49% The market49%

Us49%

~~Market~~49%

We make Naxxar Lions a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santa Lucía v Naxxar Lions~~1.34 – 1.82

~~Form · Challenge League this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D4 L0 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 9~~11 v 2

~~The market · Naxxar Lions win~~49% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Naxxar Lions win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santa Lucía win	30%	25%	+5
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Naxxar Lions win	49%	49%	0
Over 2.5 goals	60%	54%	+6
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	76%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	39%	34%	+5
Santa Lucía or draw	51%	51%	0
Santa Lucía clean sheet	18%	–	–
Naxxar Lions clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.5 8.3 6.9 4.2 2.1 1 6.4 9.8 8.7 5.3 2.5 2 4.1 6.7 5.8 3.5 3 3.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santa Lucía down, Naxxar Lions across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,052 Challenge League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santa Lucía at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Naxxar Lions away: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Santa Lucía, 1.82 for Naxxar Lions. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–0 NAX · NAX 4–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Challenge League this season · since 12 Sept

SANTA LUCÍA

DDDD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

NAXXAR LIONS

LWWW2–3 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tarxien Rainbows	4	+7	12
2	Naxxar Lions	4	+3	9
3	Mgarr United	4	+3	9
4	Fgura United	4	+7	8
5	Swieqi United	4	+1	7
6	Melita	5	+1	7
7	St. Andrews	5	−3	7
8	Pietà Hotspurs	4	0	6
9	Victoria Hotspurs	4	0	6
10	Vittoriosa Stars	4	0	5
11	Santa Lucía	4	0	4
12	Sirens	4	−1	4
13	Zurrieq	4	−1	4
14	Attard	5	−3	3
15	Zebbug Rangers	5	−7	3
16	Gudja United	4	−7	0