Naxxar Lions v Victoria Hotspurs prediction · Challenge League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Naxxar Lions 1–0 Victoria Hotspurs NAXXAR LIONS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Naxxar Lions win~~48%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.418

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.514

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Naxxar Lions win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Naxxar Lions 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–21–31
1′KICK-OFF Naxxar Lions v Victoria Hotspurs
16′Naxxar Lions find the net on 16′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–17–13
16′We said Naxxar Lions at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–17–13
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Naxxar Lions 1–0 Victoria Hotspurs
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Naxxar Lions win: 48% at kick-off, 69% now
19′We said Naxxar Lions at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–17–13
24′Naxxar Lions ahead on 17′ through T. Zammit. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–18–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 70–18–11
45′HALF-TIME Naxxar Lions 1–0 Victoria Hotspurs
46′SECOND HALF Naxxar Lions 1–0 Victoria Hotspurs
56′We said Naxxar Lions at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Naxxar Lions win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
69′We said Naxxar Lions at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
77′We said Naxxar Lions at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
77′Naxxar Lions are down to ten from 77′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 85–14–2
77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' Naxxar Lions
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Naxxar Lions win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
83′We said Naxxar Lions at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
89′We said Naxxar Lions at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Naxxar Lions win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Naxxar Lions 1–0 Victoria Hotspurs
FTNaxxar Lions 1–0 Victoria Hotspurs · Naxxar Lions win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Naxxar Lions are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Naxxar Lions 48%, draw 21%, Victoria Hotspurs 31%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Naxxar Lions v Victoria HotspursBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Naxxar Lions win48%

Draw21%

Victoria Hotspurs win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Naxxar Lions

Victoria Hotspurs

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Naxxar Lions	3	+2	6
5	Victoria Hotspurs	3	+1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · naxxar lions winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market42%

Us48%

~~Market~~42%

We make Naxxar Lions a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Naxxar Lions v Victoria Hotspurs~~1.96 – 1.52

~~Form · Challenge League this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~4 v 5

~~The market · Naxxar Lions win~~42% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Naxxar Lions win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naxxar Lions win	48%	42%	+6
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Victoria Hotspurs win	31%	33%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	60%	+6
Both teams to score	64%	62%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	45%	38%	+7
Naxxar Lions or draw	69%	67%	+2
Naxxar Lions clean sheet	24%	–	–
Victoria Hotspurs clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.6 5.4 3.9 2.0 1 6.7 8.9 6.7 3.5 2 5.9 8.2 6.0 3.1 3 3.8 5.2 3.8 4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naxxar Lions down, Victoria Hotspurs across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,046 Challenge League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Naxxar Lions at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Victoria Hotspurs away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Naxxar Lions, 1.52 for Victoria Hotspurs. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Challenge League this season · since 12 Sept

NAXXAR LIONS

LWW2–3 · 3–1 · 3–2

VICTORIA HOTSPURS

WWL3–0 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tarxien Rainbows	3	+6	9
2	Mgarr United	4	+3	9
3	Fgura United	4	+7	8
4	Naxxar Lions	3	+2	6
5	Victoria Hotspurs	3	+1	6
6	Pietà Hotspurs	4	0	6
7	Swieqi United	3	0	4
8	Melita	4	0	4
9	Sirens	3	0	4
10	Vittoriosa Stars	3	0	4
11	Santa Lucía	4	0	4
12	Zurrieq	4	−1	4
13	St. Andrews	4	−4	4
14	Zebbug Rangers	3	−5	3
15	Attard	3	−2	2
16	Gudja United	4	−7	0