Home › Football › Challenge League › Mgarr United v Zurrieq
Back
Mgarr United v Zurrieq
Mgarr UnitedZurrieqChallenge League · SUN 25 OCT
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Mgarr United are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Mgarr United 46%, draw 23%, Zurrieq 31%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Mgarr United win46%Zurrieq win31%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:30
RoundMatchday 5
Match timeline
All events
Mgarr UnitedMINZurrieqEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Mgarr United
Zurrieq
Last match: 17 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)
Last match: 17 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mgarr United | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 13 | Zurrieq | 4 | −1 | 4 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Mgarr United a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mgarr United win | 46% | 50% | −4 |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | −2 |
| Zurrieq win | 31% | 25% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 53% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 31% | +5 |
| Mgarr United or draw | 69% | 75% | −6 |
| Mgarr United clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| Zurrieq clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2022/23Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Challenge League this season · since 12 Sept
MGARR UNITED
ZURRIEQ
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tarxien Rainbows | 4 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 |  Fgura United | 5 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 |  Naxxar Lions | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 4 | Mgarr United | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Swieqi United | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 6 |  Melita | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 |  St. Andrews | 5 | −3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Pietà Hotspurs | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 |  Victoria Hotspurs | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 |  Vittoriosa Stars | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 |  Santa Lucía | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 |  Sirens | 4 | −1 | 4 |
| 13 | Zurrieq | 4 | −1 | 4 |
| 14 |  Attard | 5 | −3 | 3 |
| 15 |  Zebbug Rangers | 5 | −7 | 3 |
| 16 |  Gudja United | 5 | −8 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.