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Mgarr United v Vittoriosa Stars

Mgarr United

2–0Full time

Vittoriosa Stars

Challenge League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

Mgarr United 2–0 Vittoriosa Stars MGARR UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mgarr United win~~47%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.417

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.382

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mgarr United win at 47%.
3′KICK-OFF Mgarr United v Vittoriosa Stars
5′Little has changed for our model: Mgarr United 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–28
11′⚽ GOAL · 9' Mgarr United 1–0 Vittoriosa Stars
26′9′ and it is 1–0: B. Buhagiar on the scoresheet for Mgarr United. 1–0 · 73–18–9
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Mgarr United win: 47% at kick-off, 73% now
45′We said Mgarr United at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–6
45′HALF-TIME Mgarr United 1–0 Vittoriosa Stars
46′SECOND HALF Mgarr United 1–0 Vittoriosa Stars
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Mgarr United 2–0 Vittoriosa Stars
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Mgarr United win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Mgarr United win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Mgarr United win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Mgarr United win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Mgarr United win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Mgarr United win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
FTFULL TIME Mgarr United 2–0 Vittoriosa Stars
FTMgarr United 2–0 Vittoriosa Stars · Mgarr United win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Mgarr United win47%

Draw24%

Vittoriosa Stars win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mgarr united winPublished 10 Oct 15:43

47% The market50%

Us47%

~~Market~~50%

We make Mgarr United a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mgarr united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mgarr United win	47%	50%	−2
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Vittoriosa Stars win	29%	25%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−2
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−3
Mgarr United or draw	71%	75%	−3
Mgarr United clean sheet	31%	–	–
Vittoriosa Stars clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.3 7.6 4.4 1 10.2 11.1 6.7 2.7 2 7.9 8.9 5.3 2.2 3 4.3 4.8 2.9 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mgarr United down, Vittoriosa Stars across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,034 Challenge League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mgarr United at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vittoriosa Stars away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Mgarr United, 1.19 for Vittoriosa Stars. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MGA 1–1 VIT · VIT 1–0 MGA

Form · last six in Challenge League

MGARR UNITED

DDLLLW1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 2–1

VITTORIOSA STARS

DWLLDW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tarxien Rainbows	2	+4	6
2	Victoria Hotspurs	2	+4	6
3	Fgura United	2	+4	4
4	Vittoriosa Stars	2	+2	4
5	Swieqi United	2	+1	4
6	Sirens	2	+1	4
7	Melita	2	+2	3
8	Naxxar Lions	2	+1	3
9	Pietà Hotspurs	2	0	3
10	Mgarr United	2	−1	3
11	Santa Lucía	2	0	2
12	Attard	2	−2	1
13	St. Andrews	2	−3	1
14	Zurrieq	2	−2	0
15	Gudja United	2	−5	0
16	Zebbug Rangers	2	−6	0