Gudja United v St. Andrews prediction · Challenge League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Gudja United 0–1 St. Andrews GUDJA UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gudja United win~~39%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.640

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.562

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gudja United win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gudja United 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
1′KICK-OFF Gudja United v St. Andrews
4′Little has changed for our model: Gudja United 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Gudja United 0–1 St. Andrews
30′⚽ GOAL · 24' Gudja United 0–1 St. Andrews · J. Attard
45′HALF-TIME Gudja United 0–1 St. Andrews
46′SECOND HALF Gudja United 0–1 St. Andrews
FTFULL TIME Gudja United 0–1 St. Andrews
FTGudja United 0–1 St. Andrews · Gudja United win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gudja United win39%

Draw26%

St. Andrews win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gudja United

St. Andrews

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	St. Andrews	2	−3	1
16	Gudja United	2	−5	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gudja united winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

39% The market36%

Us39%

~~Market~~36%

We make Gudja United a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gudja united win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gudja United win	39%	36%	+3
Draw	26%	27%	−1
St. Andrews win	35%	37%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	53%	−8
Both teams to score	49%	58%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	69%	76%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	24%	32%	−8
Gudja United or draw	65%	63%	+2
Gudja United clean sheet	31%	–	–
St. Andrews clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.6 10.7 6.1 2.5 1 11.3 12.1 7.4 3.0 2 6.9 7.9 4.7 3 3.0 3.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gudja United down, St. Andrews across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,038 Challenge League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gudja United at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). St. Andrews away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Gudja United, 1.19 for St. Andrews. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GUD 0–1 STA · STA 1–1 GUD · GUD 4–2 STA

Form · last six in Challenge League

GUDJA UNITED

WLWWLL3–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 0–2

ST. ANDREWS

LLLDLD0–3 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Fgura United	3	+7	7
2	Tarxien Rainbows	2	+4	6
3	Naxxar Lions	3	+2	6
4	Mgarr United	3	+1	6
5	Victoria Hotspurs	3	+1	6
6	Swieqi United	3	0	4
7	Sirens	3	0	4
8	Vittoriosa Stars	3	0	4
9	Melita	2	+2	3
10	Pietà Hotspurs	2	0	3
11	Zebbug Rangers	3	−5	3
12	Santa Lucía	2	0	2
13	Attard	2	−2	1
14	St. Andrews	2	−3	1
15	Zurrieq	2	−2	0
16	Gudja United	2	−5	0