Home › Football › Challenge League › Fgura United v Santa Lucía
Back
Fgura United v Santa Lucía
Fgura UnitedSanta LucíaChallenge League · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Fgura United win at 49%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Fgura United was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–22–29
- 1′KICK-OFF Fgura United v Santa Lucía
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Fgura United win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Fgura United 0–0 Santa Lucía
- 46′SECOND HALF Fgura United 0–0 Santa Lucía
- 51′We said Fgura United at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–38–25
- 55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–41–24
- 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Fgura United win 35%)
- 57′We said Fgura United at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–42–24
- 66′We said Fgura United at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–20
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Fgura United win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
- 74′We said Fgura United at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–61–16
- 78′We said Fgura United at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Fgura United win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
- 82′We said Fgura United at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–10
- 86′We said Fgura United at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Fgura United win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
- 91′A red card for Santa Lucía on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 5–92–4
- 91′🟥 RED CARD · 90+1' Santa Lucía
- 92′We said Fgura United at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
- FTFULL TIME Fgura United 0–0 Santa Lucía
- FTFgura United 0–0 Santa Lucía · Fgura United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassFgura United are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Fgura United 49%, draw 22%, Santa Lucía 29%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Fgura United win49%Santa Lucía win29%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:30
RoundMatchday 4
Match timeline
All events
Fgura UnitedMINSanta LucíaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Fgura United
Santa Lucía
Last match: 10 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)
Last match: 11 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Fgura United | 3 | +7 | 7 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Fgura United a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fgura United win | 49% | 37% | +12 |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | −4 |
| Santa Lucía win | 29% | 37% | −8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 54% | +8 |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 77% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 33% | +7 |
| Fgura United or draw | 71% | 63% | +8 |
| Fgura United clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Santa Lucía clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Challenge League this season · since 12 Sept
FGURA UNITED
SANTA LUCÍA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tarxien Rainbows | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 |  Mgarr United | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 | Fgura United | 3 | +7 | 7 |
| 4 |  Naxxar Lions | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Victoria Hotspurs | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 |  Melita | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Swieqi United | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 |  Sirens | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 |  Vittoriosa Stars | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 |  St. Andrews | 4 | −4 | 4 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 |  Pietà Hotspurs | 3 | −2 | 3 |
| 13 |  Zebbug Rangers | 3 | −5 | 3 |
| 14 |  Attard | 3 | −2 | 2 |
| 15 |  Zurrieq | 3 | −2 | 1 |
| 16 |  Gudja United | 3 | −6 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.