Attard v St. Andrews prediction · Challenge League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Attard 0–1 St. Andrews ST. ANDREWS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said St. Andrews win~~38%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.592

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.610

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said St. Andrews win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: St. Andrews was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
1′KICK-OFF Attard v St. Andrews
2′A goal for St. Andrews on 2′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–20–63
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Attard 0–1 St. Andrews
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' St. Andrews win: 38% at kick-off, 63% now
4′We published St. Andrews at 38%. Our model now makes it 63%. 0–1 · 17–20–63
19′We published St. Andrews at 38%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–1 · 14–21–65
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 12–22–66
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' St. Andrews win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
45′HALF-TIME Attard 0–1 St. Andrews
46′We published St. Andrews at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–22–70
46′SECOND HALF Attard 0–1 St. Andrews
60′We published St. Andrews at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' St. Andrews win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
70′We published St. Andrews at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
77′We published St. Andrews at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' St. Andrews win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
82′We published St. Andrews at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
89′We published St. Andrews at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' St. Andrews win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Attard 0–1 St. Andrews
FTAttard 0–1 St. Andrews · St. Andrews win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with St. Andrews just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Attard 38%, draw 25%, St. Andrews 38%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Attard v St. AndrewsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Attard win38%

Draw25%

St. Andrews win38%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Attard

St. Andrews

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)

Last match: 17 Oct · Challenge League (Malta)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	St. Andrews	4	−4	4
14	Attard	4	−2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st. andrews winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make St. Andrews a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Attard v St. Andrews~~1.37 – 1.37

~~Form · Challenge League this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D3 L1 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 4~~14 v 13

~~The market · St. Andrews win~~36% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · St. Andrews win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Attard win	38%	36%	+2
Draw	25%	28%	−3
St. Andrews win	38%	36%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	50%	+1
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	30%	−1
Attard or draw	62%	64%	−2
Attard clean sheet	26%	–	–
St. Andrews clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.8 9.4 6.1 2.9 1 9.3 11.4 7.9 3.7 2 6.1 7.9 5.3 2.5 3 2.8 3.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Attard down, St. Andrews across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,050 Challenge League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Attard at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). St. Andrews away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Attard, 1.37 for St. Andrews. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~STA 2–1 ATT · ATT 1–1 STA · STA 2–1 ATT · ATT 1–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Challenge League this season · since 12 Sept

ATTARD

DLDD3–3 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–2

ST. ANDREWS

LDWL0–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tarxien Rainbows	4	+7	12
2	Naxxar Lions	4	+3	9
3	Mgarr United	4	+3	9
4	Fgura United	4	+7	8
5	Swieqi United	4	+1	7
6	Pietà Hotspurs	4	0	6
7	Victoria Hotspurs	4	0	6
8	Vittoriosa Stars	4	0	5
9	Melita	4	0	4
10	Santa Lucía	4	0	4
11	Sirens	4	−1	4
12	Zurrieq	4	−1	4
13	St. Andrews	4	−4	4
14	Attard	4	−2	3
15	Zebbug Rangers	4	−6	3
16	Gudja United	4	−7	0