Terengganu v Johor Darul Takzim FC prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Terengganu 0–3 Johor Darul Takzim FC JOHOR DARUL TAKZIM FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Johor Darul Takzim FC win~~83%

~~The market said~~84%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.043

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.040

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Johor Darul Takzim FC win at 83%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Johor Darul Takzim FC 83% before kick-off, 83% now. 0–0 · 5–11–83
1′KICK-OFF Terengganu v Johor Darul Takzim FC
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Johor Darul Takzim FC
27′Johor Darul Takzim FC score on 26′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 1–5–93
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Terengganu 0–1 Johor Darul Takzim FC
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Johor Darul Takzim FC win: 83% at kick-off, 93% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 0–1 · 1–6–93
41′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Terengganu · On: H. Haroon · Off: N. Ndasi
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Terengganu
43′Johor Darul Takzim FC find the net on 42′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
43′We said Johor Darul Takzim FC at 83% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Terengganu 0–2 Johor Darul Takzim FC
45′HALF-TIME Terengganu 0–2 Johor Darul Takzim FC
46′SECOND HALF Terengganu 0–2 Johor Darul Takzim FC
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Johor Darul Takzim FC · On: L. Corbin-Ong · Off: O. Arribas
67′PENALTY MISSED · 66' Terengganu
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Johor Darul Takzim FC · On: Stoichkov · Off: Jairo
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Johor Darul Takzim FC · On: A. Fazail · Off: N. Mendez
71′We said Johor Darul Takzim FC at 83% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Terengganu · On: R. Morales · Off: D. Amier
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Terengganu
81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Johor Darul Takzim FC · On: S. Zahedi · Off: Bergson
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Johor Darul Takzim FC · On: N. Insa · Off: D. Petrovic
89′A goal for Johor Darul Takzim FC on 89′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Terengganu 0–3 Johor Darul Takzim FC
FTFULL TIME Terengganu 0–3 Johor Darul Takzim FC
FTTerengganu 0–3 Johor Darul Takzim FC · Johor Darul Takzim FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Johor Darul Takzim FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Terengganu 5%, draw 11%, Johor Darul Takzim FC 83%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Terengganu v Johor Darul Takzim FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Terengganu win5%

Draw11%

Johor Darul Takzim FC win83%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueSultan Mizan Zainal Abidin Stadium

Line-ups

Terengganu

Johor Darul Takzim FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Terengganu

Johor Darul Takzim FC

32Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Sept · FA Cup (Malaysia)

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

0Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Terengganu

Formation not confirmed

38 S. Husin

3 U. Shamsul

4 N. Ndasi

5 S. Ros Hasni

9 G. Kastaneer

11 Mateusinho

14 H. Kutty

18 P. Gunalan

21 D. Amier

23 A. Azmi

44 P. Diakite

Coach · Nafuzi Zain

Substitutes

1 · R. Rahalim

6 · F. Mazlan

15 · F. Rifqi

19 · R. Morales

20 · H. Haroon

55 · Z. Zahidadil

88 · N. Haseefy

Johor Darul Takzim FC

Formation not confirmed

16 S. Hazmi

9 Bergson

10 A. Aiman

11 Jairo

14 S. Lowry

21 D. Petrovic

24 O. Arribas

26 B. Tapp

28 N. Mendez

81 K. Medina

95 Marcos Guilherme

Coach · Xisco

Substitutes

1 · C. Abad Amat

4 · A. Fazail

7 · S. Zahedi

19 · Stoichkov

22 · L. Corbin-Ong

23 · E. Israfilov

30 · N. Insa

88 · M. Hidalgo

97 · Yago Cesar

Our number · johor darul takzim fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:08 · locked at kick-off

83% The market84%

Us83%

~~Market~~84%

We make Johor Darul Takzim FC an 83% chance to win. The market has them at 84%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.6–3.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Terengganu v Johor Darul Takzim FC~~0.62 – 3.04

~~Form · Super League this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D2 L1 · W5 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 15~~8 v 1

~~The market · Johor Darul Takzim FC win~~84% · ours 83%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Johor Darul Takzim FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 84%, 83% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 84% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Terengganu win	5%	5%	0
Draw	11%	11%	0
Johor Darul Takzim FC win	83%	84%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Both teams to score	43%	44%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Terengganu or draw	17%	16%	+1
Terengganu clean sheet	6%	–	–
Johor Darul Takzim FC clean sheet	55%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.9%

0123450 3.2 8.2 11.9 11.7 8.9 5.61 5.0 6.9 6.7 5.0 3.12 2.4 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Terengganu down, Johor Darul Takzim FC across0–5 goals a side shown (90.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 787 Super League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Terengganu at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Johor Darul Takzim FC away: 5.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.62 goals for Terengganu, 3.04 for Johor Darul Takzim FC. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JOH 1–1 TER · TER 0–5 JOH · JOH 2–1 TER · TER 0–1 JOH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 21 Aug

TERENGGANU

WLDD3–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

JOHOR DARUL TAKZIM FC

WWWWW3–0 · 9–0 · 7–0 · 3–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Johor Darul Takzim FC	5	+25	15
2	Selangor	5	+12	15
3	Kuching FA	5	+11	12
4	Sabah FA	5	+1	7
5	DPMM FC Brunei	4	−2	6
6	Melaka	5	−3	6
7	Kuala Lumpur FA	6	−10	6
8	Terengganu	4	0	5
9	Negeri Sembilan	5	−1	5
10	Imigresen	5	−6	5
11	Penang	5	−4	4
12	Kelantan Red Warrior FC	6	−23	0