Selangor v Penang prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Selangor 3–1 Penang SELANGOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Selangor win~~77%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.084

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.092

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Selangor win at 77%.
1′Much as we predicted: Selangor was 77% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 76–15–8
1′KICK-OFF Selangor v Penang
11′Selangor score on 11′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 91–7–2
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Selangor 1–0 Penang
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Selangor win: 77% at kick-off, 91% now
12′We published Selangor at 77%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–7–2
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 90–8–2
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Penang
45′HALF-TIME Selangor 1–0 Penang
45′🟨 YELLOW · 37' H. Azim · Penang
46′SECOND HALF Selangor 1–0 Penang
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Selangor · On: H. Boumous · Off: Vitor Pernambuco
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Penang · On: K. Naskam · Off: S. Fikri
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Penang · On: I. Iziruddin · Off: D. Tumbas
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Selangor
52′Selangor find the net on 52′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
52′We published Selangor at 77%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Selangor 2–0 Penang
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Selangor win: 77% at kick-off, 99% now
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Penang
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Penang · On: A. Zamri · Off: H. Azim
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Penang · On: M. Bobojonov · Off: E. Celestine
70′A goal for Penang on 69′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–1
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Selangor 2–1 Penang
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Selangor win: 77% at kick-off, 92% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Selangor · On: A. Izwan · Off: A. Selvan
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Selangor · On: Z. Khalili · Off: J. Tabinas
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Selangor win: 77% at kick-off, 97% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Selangor · On: H. Haiqal · Off: E. Sosa
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Penang
90′S. Brundo scores for Penang on 69′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
90′We published Selangor at 77%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–1 · 98–2–0
91′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 2–1 · 98–2–0
94′Selangor score on 90′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
94′We published Selangor at 77%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
94′PENALTY MISSED · 90+4' Selangor
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Selangor 3–1 Penang
95′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Selangor 3–1 Penang
FTSelangor 3–1 Penang · Selangor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Selangor are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Selangor 77%, draw 15%, Penang 8%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Selangor v PenangBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Selangor win77%

Draw15%

Penang win8%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:15

RoundMatchday 5

VenueMBPJ Stadium

Line-ups

Selangor

Penang

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Selangor

Penang

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · FA Cup (Malaysia)

Last match: 9 Oct · FA Cup (Malaysia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Selangor	4	+10	12
10	Penang	4	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Selangor

Formation not confirmed

31 S. Nazrel

2 Q. Cheng

5 A. Xhemajli

6 N. Laine

10 E. Sosa

16 A. Selvan

21 S. Baharudin

40 J. Tabinas

43 S. Bashah

91 Chrigor Moraes

98 Vitor Pernambuco

Coach · Pan-Gon Kim

Substitutes

20 · A. Al Amin

8 · P. Makrillos

9 · H. Boumous

14 · Z. Khalili

28 · M. Abu Khalil

29 · M. Ajmal

30 · Pedro Ataide

55 · H. Haiqal

76 · A. Izwan

Penang

Formation not confirmed

22 R. Hamid

8 O. Porteria

15 S. Brundo

55 F. Obilor

6 K. Akmal

67 M. Fahmi

77 B. Kosimov

16 D. Tumbas

37 H. Azim

32 S. Fikri

9 E. Celestine

Coach · Wan Rohaimi

Substitutes

1 · K. Khalid

33 · J. Jasmi

14 · M. Firdaus

80 · I. Iziruddin

57 · D. Ganasan

13 · K. Naskam

28 · A. Zamri

20 · D. Deraman

7 · M. Bobojonov

Our number · selangor winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

77% The market76%

Us77%

~~Market~~76%

We make Selangor a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.6–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Selangor v Penang~~2.56 – 0.66

~~Form · Super League this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D0 L0 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 4~~3 v 10

~~The market · Selangor win~~76% · ours 77%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Selangor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Selangor win	77%	76%	+1
Draw	15%	15%	0
Penang win	8%	9%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	64%	−3
Both teams to score	43%	48%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	40%	44%	−4
Selangor or draw	92%	91%	+1
Selangor clean sheet	53%	–	–
Penang clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.8%

0123450 4.7 2.8 1 10.5 7.0 2.4 2 12.8 8.1 2.8 3 10.7 6.6 2.3 4 7.0 4.2 5 3.8 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Selangor down, Penang across0–5 goals a side shown (94.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 784 Super League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Selangor at home: 3.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Penang away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.56 goals for Selangor, 0.66 for Penang. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SEL 4–0 PEN · PEN 1–5 SEL · PEN 1–1 SEL · SEL 4–1 PEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 22 Aug

SELANGOR

WWWW4–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 3–0

PENANG

LLDW0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Johor Darul Takzim FC	5	+25	15
2	Kuching FA	5	+11	12
3	Selangor	4	+10	12
4	Sabah FA	4	+1	6
5	DPMM FC Brunei	4	−2	6
6	Kuala Lumpur FA	5	−9	6
7	Terengganu	4	0	5
8	Imigresen	5	−6	5
9	Negeri Sembilan	4	−1	4
10	Penang	4	−2	4
11	Melaka	4	−4	3
12	Kelantan Red Warrior FC	6	−23	0