Negeri Sembilan v Sabah FA prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:44

Negeri Sembilan 1–1 Sabah FA NEGERI SEMBILAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Negeri Sembilan win~~41%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.847

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.801

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Negeri Sembilan win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Negeri Sembilan 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
1′KICK-OFF Negeri Sembilan v Sabah FA
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Sabah FA
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Negeri Sembilan win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Negeri Sembilan 0–1 Sabah FA
45′SECOND HALF Negeri Sembilan 0–1 Sabah FA
46′We said Negeri Sembilan at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–23–67
46′A goal for Sabah FA on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–67
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Negeri Sembilan 0–1 Sabah FA
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Negeri Sembilan win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Sabah FA win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 23%)
51′We said Negeri Sembilan at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Negeri Sembilan
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Negeri Sembilan · On: J. Motika · Off: Y. Minagawa
67′We said Negeri Sembilan at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
68′We said Negeri Sembilan at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–56–21
68′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 23–56–21
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Negeri Sembilan 1–1 Sabah FA
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Negeri Sembilan win: 41% at kick-off, 23% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Sabah FA win 21%)
69′Negeri Sembilan score on 69′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 23–57–20
74′We said Negeri Sembilan at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–64–17
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Negeri Sembilan · On: A. Kamara · Off: L. Hakim
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Negeri Sembilan
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sabah FA · On: F. Roslan · Off: F. Zulkifi
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sabah FA · On: R. Batuil · Off: M. Abdullah
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Negeri Sembilan win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Negeri Sembilan · On: K. Piee · Off: K. Oshiro Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Negeri Sembilan · On: A. Mutalib · Off: A. Rashid
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Negeri Sembilan · On: T. Sasaki · Off: A. Azizol
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Sabah FA
FTFULL TIME Negeri Sembilan 1–1 Sabah FA
FTNegeri Sembilan 1–1 Sabah FA · Negeri Sembilan win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Negeri Sembilan are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Negeri Sembilan 41%, draw 25%, Sabah FA 34%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Negeri Sembilan v Sabah FABefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Negeri Sembilan win41%

Draw25%

Sabah FA win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueTuanku Abdul Rahman Stadium

Line-ups

Negeri Sembilan

Sabah FA

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Negeri Sembilan

Sabah FA

36Days since last match34

Last match: 11 Sept · Super League (Malaysia)

Last match: 13 Sept · Super League (Malaysia)

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Sabah FA	4	+1	6
9	Negeri Sembilan	4	−1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Negeri Sembilan

Formation not confirmed

30 A. Ghani

4 Yi-young Park

5 K. Oshiro

26 H. Hakim

28 A. Ariffin

6 W. Kuzri

24 Y. Hirano

34 A. Azizol

10 L. Hakim

13 Y. Minagawa

32 A. Rashid

Coach · Daniel Gimenez

Substitutes

22 · A. Razak

2 · R. Shamsul

18 · K. Piee

7 · T. Sasaki

12 · A. Fitri

14 · M. A. Mahinan

17 · A. Mutalib

9 · J. Motika

11 · A. Kamara

Sabah FA

Formation not confirmed

31 D. Lim

14 J. Angel

33 D. Tan

34 Cadete

72 M. Abdullah

5 O. Kekkonen

17 S. Yamamoto

20 F. Danel

21 F. Zulkifi

7 G. Di Renzo

28 D. Lok

Coach · Juan Torres

Substitutes

22 · J. Flere

3 · R. Batuil

76 · R. Yanam

8 · F. Roslan

9 · Park Jung-Bin

70 · F. Iman

88 · R. Roslan

Our number · negeri sembilan winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market36%

Us41%

~~Market~~36%

We make Negeri Sembilan a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Negeri Sembilan v Sabah FA~~1.52 – 1.36

~~Form · Super League this season · since 24 Aug~~W0 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~9 v 4

~~The market · Negeri Sembilan win~~36% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Negeri Sembilan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Negeri Sembilan win	41%	36%	+5
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Sabah FA win	34%	37%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	55%	−1
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	75%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Negeri Sembilan or draw	66%	63%	+3
Negeri Sembilan clean sheet	27%	–	–
Sabah FA clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.3 7.7 5.3 2.5 1 8.5 11.5 7.6 3.5 2 6.5 8.4 5.6 2.6 3 3.3 4.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Negeri Sembilan down, Sabah FA across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 784 Super League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Negeri Sembilan at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sabah FA away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Negeri Sembilan, 1.36 for Sabah FA. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAB 1–1 NEG · NEG 3–0 SAB · NEG 1–2 SAB · SAB 2–0 NEG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 24 Aug

NEGERI SEMBILAN

LDL1–2 · 2–2 · 0–3

SABAH FA

WWLL3–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Johor Darul Takzim FC	5	+25	15
2	Kuching FA	5	+11	12
3	Selangor	4	+10	12
4	Sabah FA	4	+1	6
5	DPMM FC Brunei	4	−2	6
6	Kuala Lumpur FA	5	−9	6
7	Terengganu	4	0	5
8	Imigresen	5	−6	5
9	Negeri Sembilan	4	−1	4
10	Penang	4	−2	4
11	Melaka	4	−4	3
12	Kelantan Red Warrior FC	6	−23	0