Melaka v Kuala Lumpur FA prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Melaka 3–2 Kuala Lumpur FA KUALA LUMPUR FA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kuala Lumpur FA win~~47%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.796

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.639

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kuala Lumpur FA win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kuala Lumpur FA 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 28–25–46
1′KICK-OFF Melaka v Kuala Lumpur FA
13′A goal for Kuala Lumpur FA on 12′. 0–0 · 28–28–45
13′We said Kuala Lumpur FA at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 10–17–72
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Melaka 0–1 Kuala Lumpur FA
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Kuala Lumpur FA win: 47% at kick-off, 72% now
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Melaka
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 8–18–74
39′We said Kuala Lumpur FA at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 7–18–75
41′A goal for Melaka on 41′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 25–37–38
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Melaka 1–1 Kuala Lumpur FA
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Kuala Lumpur FA win: 47% at kick-off, 38% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Kuala Lumpur FA win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
44′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Melaka · On: S. Abdul Rashid · Off: Z. Azri
45′HALF-TIME Melaka 1–1 Kuala Lumpur FA
45′SECOND HALF Melaka 1–1 Kuala Lumpur FA
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Kuala Lumpur FA win 35%)
50′Christian scores for Melaka on 41′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–42–35
50′We said Kuala Lumpur FA at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 23–42–35
52′We said Kuala Lumpur FA at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 23–43–34
53′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 23–44–34
54′A goal for Melaka on 53′. 1–1 · 23–44–33
54′We said Kuala Lumpur FA at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 67–24–9
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Melaka 2–1 Kuala Lumpur FA
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Kuala Lumpur FA win: 47% at kick-off, 9% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Melaka win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
55′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 67–24–9
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Kuala Lumpur FA win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Kuala Lumpur FA
69′We said Kuala Lumpur FA at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Kuala Lumpur FA · On: M. S. Jamaluddin · Off: G. Steven
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kuala Lumpur FA · On: K. Davaragi · Off: J. Adjei
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kuala Lumpur FA · On: S. Sharvin · Off: R. Ofosu
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kuala Lumpur FA · On: S. Ahmad · Off: F. Sadat
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Melaka
77′Kuala Lumpur FA find the net on 77′. 2–1 · 83–15–2
78′We said Kuala Lumpur FA at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 2–2 · 12–72–16
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Melaka 2–2 Kuala Lumpur FA
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Kuala Lumpur FA win: 47% at kick-off, 16% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Melaka win 12%)
79′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 11–74–15
80′We said Kuala Lumpur FA at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 10–76–14
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Melaka · On: V. Ruventhiran · Off: S. Lyngbo
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Melaka · On: K. Park · Off: Christian
86′A goal for Melaka on 86′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 92–8–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Melaka 3–2 Kuala Lumpur FA
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Kuala Lumpur FA win: 47% at kick-off, under 1% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Melaka win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
87′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 93–7–0
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Kuala Lumpur FA
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Melaka · On: S. Kim · Off: D. Kalesic
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Melaka · On: A. Nouri · Off: S. Abdul Rashid
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Kuala Lumpur FA · On: H. Bakri · Off: F. Amir
FTFULL TIME Melaka 3–2 Kuala Lumpur FA
FTMelaka 3–2 Kuala Lumpur FA · Kuala Lumpur FA win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kuala Lumpur FA are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Melaka 28%, draw 25%, Kuala Lumpur FA 47%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Melaka v Kuala Lumpur FABefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Melaka win28%

Draw25%

Kuala Lumpur FA win47%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueHang Jebat Stadium

Line-ups

Melaka

Kuala Lumpur FA

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Melaka

Kuala Lumpur FA

35Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Sept · Super League (Malaysia)

Last match: 11 Oct · FA Cup (Malaysia)

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Kuala Lumpur FA	5	−9	6
11	Melaka	4	−4	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Melaka

Formation not confirmed

29 F. Irman

3 S. Lyngbo

6 Z. Azri

9 K. Sherman

11 J. Firdaus Chew

13 A. Coulibaly

20 D. Kalesic

21 K. Arif

23 A. Aripin

30 Christian

33 N. Agbre

Coach · Elangowan Elavarasan

Substitutes

2 · R. Che Halim

5 · S. Kim

7 · K. Park

15 · H. Abu Bakar

19 · K. Fahmi

22 · S. Abdul Rashid

66 · A. Nouri

68 · V. Ruventhiran

99 · M. A. Anuar Ikmalrizal

Kuala Lumpur FA

Formation not confirmed

13 A. Eqhwan

3 A. Azlin

4 K. Azizi

6 S. Andik

9 G. Gallifuoco

10 R. Ofosu

15 F. Sadat

17 F. Amir

20 G. Steven

24 J. Adjei

28 Paulo Josue

Coach · Dollah Salleh

Substitutes

1 · Q. Kammeraad

7 · S. Ahmad

11 · H. Bakri

12 · S. Kumaahran

21 · K. Davaragi

29 · A. Nasrulhaq

33 · M. S. Jamaluddin

77 · S. Sharvin

96 · D. Lytvyn

Our number · kuala lumpur fa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

47% The market38%

Us47%

~~Market~~38%

We make Kuala Lumpur FA a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Melaka v Kuala Lumpur FA~~1.16 – 1.57

~~Form · Super League this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D0 L3 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 6~~11 v 6

~~The market · Kuala Lumpur FA win~~38% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kuala Lumpur FA win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Melaka win	28%	35%	−7
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Kuala Lumpur FA win	47%	38%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	60%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	35%	−6
Melaka or draw	53%	62%	−9
Melaka clean sheet	22%	–	–
Kuala Lumpur FA clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.2 10.2 8.0 4.3 1 7.5 11.7 8.9 4.7 2 4.4 6.6 5.1 2.7 3 2.6 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Melaka down, Kuala Lumpur FA across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 784 Super League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Melaka at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kuala Lumpur FA away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Melaka, 1.57 for Kuala Lumpur FA. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KUA 2–1 MEL · MEL 0–3 KUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 22 Aug

MELAKA

LWLL0–3 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 1–2

KUALA LUMPUR FA

LWWL0–6 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Johor Darul Takzim FC	5	+25	15
2	Kuching FA	5	+11	12
3	Selangor	4	+10	12
4	Sabah FA	4	+1	6
5	DPMM FC Brunei	4	−2	6
6	Kuala Lumpur FA	5	−9	6
7	Terengganu	4	0	5
8	Imigresen	5	−6	5
9	Negeri Sembilan	4	−1	4
10	Penang	4	−2	4
11	Melaka	4	−4	3
12	Kelantan Red Warrior FC	6	−23	0