Kelantan Red Warrior FC v Imigresen prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59

Kelantan Red Warrior FC 2–5 Imigresen IMIGRESEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Imigresen win~~53%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.330

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.208

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Imigresen win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Imigresen was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 26–20–54
1′KICK-OFF Kelantan Red Warrior FC v Imigresen
14′Imigresen find the net on 14′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–15–73
14′We published Imigresen at 53%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 12–15–73
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Kelantan Red Warrior FC 0–1 Imigresen
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Imigresen win: 53% at kick-off, 73% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 4.0 we expected. 0–1 · 10–16–74
45′We published Imigresen at 53%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 8–17–75
45′HALF-TIME Kelantan Red Warrior FC 0–3 Imigresen
46′A goal for Imigresen on 45′. 0–1 · 8–17–75
46′We published Imigresen at 53%. Our model now makes it 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Kelantan Red Warrior FC 0–2 Imigresen
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Imigresen win: 53% at kick-off, 92% now
46′SECOND HALF Kelantan Red Warrior FC 0–3 Imigresen
49′Imigresen find the net on 45′. 0–2 · 2–6–93
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Imigresen win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
50′We published Imigresen at 53%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–3 · 0–1–98
50′⚽ GOAL · 45+5' Kelantan Red Warrior FC 0–3 Imigresen
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Imigresen
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Kelantan Red Warrior FC
52′Kelantan Red Warrior FC find the net on 52′. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–6–93
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Kelantan Red Warrior FC 1–3 Imigresen
60′Imigresen find the net on 60′. 1–3 · 1–5–95
60′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–1–99
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Kelantan Red Warrior FC 1–4 Imigresen
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Imigresen · On: Ramon Machado · Off: Pedro Henrique
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Kelantan Red Warrior FC · On: A. Joanny · Off: A. Daniel
68′We published Imigresen at 53%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
70′A goal for Kelantan Red Warrior FC on 69′. 1–4 · 0–0–100
70′6 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–3–97
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Kelantan Red Warrior FC 2–4 Imigresen
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Imigresen
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Kelantan Red Warrior FC · On: R. Muda · Off: M. Che Mat
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Imigresen · On: N. Akif · Off: Endrick
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Imigresen · On: T. Saravanan · Off: A. Fikri
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Kelantan Red Warrior FC · On: A. Latiff Suhaimi · Off: N. Mulhassan
90′Imigresen find the net on 90′. 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
90′Full time, 2–5. We called Imigresen at 53% — that one lands. 2–5 · 0–0–100
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Imigresen · On: A. Ibrahim · Off: L. Hakim
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Imigresen · On: M. Dani · Off: Pedro Santos
96′That is 7, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 2–5 · 0–0–100
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Kelantan Red Warrior FC
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Kelantan Red Warrior FC 2–5 Imigresen
FTFULL TIME Kelantan Red Warrior FC 2–5 Imigresen
FTKelantan Red Warrior FC 2–5 Imigresen · Imigresen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Imigresen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kelantan Red Warrior FC 27%, draw 19%, Imigresen 53%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Kelantan Red Warrior FC v ImigresenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Kelantan Red Warrior FC win27%

Draw19%

Imigresen win53%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueSultan Mohammad IV Stadium

Line-ups

Kelantan Red Warrior FC

Imigresen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kelantan Red Warrior FC

Imigresen

34Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Sept · Super League (Malaysia)

Last match: 11 Oct · FA Cup (Malaysia)

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Imigresen	4	−9	2
12	Kelantan Red Warrior FC	5	−20	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kelantan Red Warrior FC

Formation not confirmed

31 A. F. Saidi

4 A. Khussyairi

17 P. D. Musa

18 F. Nasir

23 M. Izuddin

24 E. Mbarga

27 A. Daniel

32 I. Shah Jamil

41 N. Mulhassan

42 M. Che Mat

76 M. Faudzi

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · A. Latiff Suhaimi

14 · S. Izzudin

16 · H. Hazli

29 · N. Cik Ani

48 · S. Wan Salman

73 · A. A. Zulkifli

79 · A. Joanny

96 · R. Muda

Imigresen

Formation not confirmed

43 F. Abdul Majid

3 A. Zahir

5 Pedro Santos

6 A. Fikri

7 M. Atede

10 Pedro Henrique

12 A. Yusni

13 L. Hakim

14 Endrick

17 Rafael Vitor

97 Douglas Oliveira

Coach · Mehmet Durakovic

Substitutes

2 · N. Leddel

8 · T. Saravanan

16 · Ramon Machado

19 · M. Dani

22 · E. M. Nur Shakir

23 · H. Hakim

25 · A. Ibrahim

29 · Z. Arifin

33 · N. Akif

Our number · imigresen winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

53% The market63%

Us53%

~~Market~~63%

We make Imigresen a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kelantan Red Warrior FC v Imigresen~~1.64 – 2.36

~~Form · Super League this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D0 L5 · W0 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 0 v 2~~12 v 11

~~The market · Imigresen win~~63% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Imigresen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kelantan Red Warrior FC win	27%	17%	+10
Draw	19%	20%	−1
Imigresen win	53%	63%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	75%	65%	+10
Both teams to score	71%	59%	+12
Over 1.5 goals	90%	83%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	56%	44%	+12
Kelantan Red Warrior FC or draw	47%	37%	+10
Kelantan Red Warrior FC clean sheet	11%	–	–
Imigresen clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.0%

0123450 2.3 4.5 5.2 4.0 2.4 1 3.2 7.3 8.0 6.1 3.7 2 2.6 5.7 6.4 4.9 2.9 3 3.2 3.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kelantan Red Warrior FC down, Imigresen across0–5 goals a side shown (94.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 783 Super League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Kelantan Red Warrior FC at home: 0.67 scored, 4.00 conceded a game (last 3). Imigresen away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Kelantan Red Warrior FC, 2.36 for Imigresen. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 22 Aug

KELANTAN RED WARRIOR FC

LLLLL1–4 · 0–9 · 0–5 · 1–3 · 2–3

IMIGRESEN

LLDD1–3 · 0–7 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Johor Darul Takzim FC	5	+25	15
2	Kuching FA	5	+11	12
3	Selangor	4	+10	12
4	Sabah FA	4	+1	6
5	DPMM FC Brunei	4	−2	6
6	Kuala Lumpur FA	5	−9	6
7	Terengganu	4	0	5
8	Negeri Sembilan	4	−1	4
9	Penang	4	−2	4
10	Melaka	4	−4	3
11	Imigresen	4	−9	2
12	Kelantan Red Warrior FC	5	−20	0