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DPMM FC Brunei v Kuching FA

DPMM FC Brunei

3–2Full time

Kuching FA

Super League · SUN 18 OCT · Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

DPMM FC Brunei 3–2 Kuching FA KUCHING FA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kuching FA win~~64%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.172

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.029

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kuching FA win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kuching FA was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 15–21–64
1′KICK-OFF DPMM FC Brunei v Kuching FA
7′A goal for DPMM FC Brunei on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 37–24–38
7′We said Kuching FA at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 1–0 · 37–24–38
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' DPMM FC Brunei 1–0 Kuching FA
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Kuching FA win: 64% at kick-off, 38% now
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Kuching FA
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' DPMM FC Brunei win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Kuching FA win 35%)
17′We said Kuching FA at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 40–26–34
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Kuching FA win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
28′We said Kuching FA at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 43–27–29
29′Kuching FA score on 28′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 16–28–56
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' DPMM FC Brunei 1–1 Kuching FA
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Kuching FA win: 64% at kick-off, 56% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Kuching FA win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was DPMM FC Brunei win 16%)
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Kuching FA
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' DPMM FC Brunei
39′We said Kuching FA at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 1–1 · 16–32–52
45′HALF-TIME DPMM FC Brunei 1–1 Kuching FA
46′We said Kuching FA at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 15–36–49
46′🟨 YELLOW · 31' N. Faiz · Kuching FA
46′SECOND HALF DPMM FC Brunei 1–1 Kuching FA
50′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 15–38–47
51′Kuching FA find the net on 50′. 1–2. 1–2 · 3–12–85
51′We published Kuching FA at 64%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 3–12–85
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' DPMM FC Brunei 1–2 Kuching FA
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Kuching FA win: 64% at kick-off, 85% now
52′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–12–85
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Kuching FA
62′A red card for Kuching FA on 62′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 2–12–87
62′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Kuching FA
65′A goal for DPMM FC Brunei on 64′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 13–51–36
65′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 13–51–36
65′🟨 YELLOW · 62' P. Shitembi · Kuching FA
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' DPMM FC Brunei 2–2 Kuching FA
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Kuching FA win: 64% at kick-off, 36% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Kuching FA win 36%)
67′DPMM FC Brunei score on 67′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 66–26–8
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Kuching FA win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' DPMM FC Brunei 3–2 Kuching FA
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Kuching FA win: 64% at kick-off, 8% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' DPMM FC Brunei win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 26%)
68′We said Kuching FA at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 3–2 · 67–26–8
68′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 67–26–8
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' DPMM FC Brunei · On: F. Aspegren · Off: Dalberto
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kuching FA · On: K. Yamazaki · Off: N. Faiz
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' DPMM FC Brunei
75′We said Kuching FA at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–2 · 74–21–4
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Kuching FA win: 64% at kick-off, 4% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Kuching FA · On: R. Saifullah · Off: D. Lambert
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' DPMM FC Brunei · On: A. Aguinaldo · Off: J. Murray
88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' DPMM FC Brunei · On: H. Said · Off: F. Izdiham
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' DPMM FC Brunei · On: S. Shariff · Off: M. Oliveira
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' DPMM FC Brunei · On: A. Hariz · Off: A. Ali Rahman
FTFULL TIME DPMM FC Brunei 3–2 Kuching FA
FTDPMM FC Brunei 3–2 Kuching FA · Kuching FA win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kuching FA are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: DPMM FC Brunei 15%, draw 21%, Kuching FA 64%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on DPMM FC Brunei v Kuching FABefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

DPMM FC Brunei win15%

Draw21%

Kuching FA win64%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:15

RoundMatchday 5

VenueSultan Hassanal Bolkiah Stadium

Line-ups

DPMM FC Brunei

Kuching FA

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

DPMM FC Brunei

Kuching FA

7Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · FA Cup (Malaysia)

Last match: 15 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Kuching FA	5	+11	12
5	DPMM FC Brunei	4	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

DPMM FC Brunei

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Somerville

3 T. Mawat

4 E. Abban

6 C. Robertson

7 A. Ali Rahman

9 D. Asri

10 M. Oliveira

11 M. Toha

27 J. Murray

29 F. Izdiham

94 Dalberto

Coach · Jamie McAllister

Substitutes

2 · S. Shariff

5 · A. Aguinaldo

12 · H. Nyaring

13 · M. H. bin Hamir

16 · A. Hariz

17 · H. Said

19 · N. Othman

23 · Y. Putera

42 · F. Aspegren

Kuching FA

Formation not confirmed

20 Nadzli Haziq

3 R. Celvin

4 Gabriel Peres

5 R. Lambert

8 N. Faiz

10 P. Shitembi

11 J. Mpacko Etame

12 D. Wenzel-Halls

21 D. Lambert

23 A. F. MD Isa M.

24 A. Mujagic

Coach · Aidil Sharin

Substitutes

1 · H. Aiman

7 · R. Saifullah

19 · G. Nistelrooy

29 · S. Rasid

35 · J. Okwuosa

55 · S. Saari

67 · S. Iszuan

88 · K. Yamazaki

99 · A. Israiwah

Our number · kuching fa winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

64% The market57%

Us64%

~~Market~~57%

We make Kuching FA a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · DPMM FC Brunei v Kuching FA~~0.86 – 2.06

~~Form · Super League this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 12~~5 v 3

~~The market · Kuching FA win~~57% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kuching FA win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
DPMM FC Brunei win	15%	19%	−4
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Kuching FA win	64%	57%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	55%	57%	−2
Both teams to score	49%	55%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	36%	−3
DPMM FC Brunei or draw	36%	43%	−7
DPMM FC Brunei clean sheet	14%	–	–
Kuching FA clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.3%

0123450 6.1 11.1 11.3 7.7 4.2 1 4.6 9.6 9.2 6.2 3.3 2 2.1 4.1 4.0 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+DPMM FC Brunei down, Kuching FA across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 787 Super League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 4.33 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

DPMM FC Brunei at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kuching FA away: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for DPMM FC Brunei, 2.06 for Kuching FA. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DPM 2–2 KUC · KUC 3–1 DPM · DPM 1–3 KUC · KUC 1–0 DPM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season · since 21 Aug

DPMM FC BRUNEI

WLLW1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–1

KUCHING FA

LWWWW0–3 · 6–0 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Johor Darul Takzim FC	5	+25	15
2	Selangor	5	+12	15
3	Kuching FA	5	+11	12
4	Sabah FA	5	+1	7
5	DPMM FC Brunei	4	−2	6
6	Melaka	5	−3	6
7	Kuala Lumpur FA	6	−10	6
8	Terengganu	4	0	5
9	Negeri Sembilan	5	−1	5
10	Imigresen	5	−6	5
11	Penang	5	−4	4
12	Kelantan Red Warrior FC	6	−23	0