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Model 1.2

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Red Lions v Ekhaya

Red Lions
0–0Full time
Ekhaya

Super League · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43
Red Lions 0–0 Ekhaya RED LIONS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Red Lions win37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.698

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Red Lions win at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Red Lions 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–32–31
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Red Lions v Ekhaya
  4. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Red Lions win 33%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Red Lions 0–0 Ekhaya
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Red Lions 0–0 Ekhaya
  7. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Red Lions win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
  8. 53′We said Red Lions at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 25–53–22
  9. 55′We said Red Lions at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–21
  10. 66′We said Red Lions at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
  11. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Red Lions win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
  12. 74′We said Red Lions at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–12
  13. 81′We said Red Lions at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
  14. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Red Lions win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  15. 88′We said Red Lions at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  16. FTFULL TIME Red Lions 0–0 Ekhaya
  17. FTRed Lions 0–0 Ekhaya · Red Lions win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Red Lions are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Red Lions 37%, draw 32%, Ekhaya 31%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Red Lions v EkhayaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Red Lions win37%
Draw32%
Ekhaya win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Red Lions

Ekhaya

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Ekhaya16+321
9Red Lions16−121

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · red lions winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
37% The market–
Us37%

We make Red Lions a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Red Lions v Ekhaya1.01 – 0.90
Form · last six in Super League this season · since 25 JulyW1 D3 L2 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 21 v 219 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Red Lions win37%––
Draw32%––
Ekhaya win31%––
Over 2.5 goals30%––
Both teams to score37%––
Over 1.5 goals57%––
Over 3.5 goals13%––
Red Lions or draw69%––
Red Lions clean sheet41%––
Ekhaya clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.2%
0123450 15.2 13.1 6.0 1 14.8 13.4 5.9 2 7.6 6.7 3.0 3 2.6 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Red Lions down, Ekhaya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsEKH 1–1 RED

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 25 July

RED LIONS

LDWLDD2–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

EKHAYA

LDLLDW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Be Forward Wanderers17+1835
2Nyasa Big Bullets16+1533
3Blue Eagles16+631
4Silver Strikers16+1229
5Chitipa United16−324
6Masters FC16022
7Mitundu Baptist17−122
8Ekhaya16+321
9Red Lions16−121
10Moyale Barracks16−221
11CIVO United17−521
12Dedza Dynamos17−919
13Karonga United16−817
14MAFCO16−713
15Kamuzu Barracks17−913
16Creck17−913

The competition's standings before kick-off.