Nyasa Big Bullets v CIVO United prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Nyasa Big Bullets 1–0 CIVO United NYASA BIG BULLETS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Nyasa Big Bullets win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.203

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nyasa Big Bullets win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nyasa Big Bullets was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–24–12
1′KICK-OFF Nyasa Big Bullets v CIVO United
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Nyasa Big Bullets win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
34′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 52–35–12
40′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–39–12
45′HALF-TIME Nyasa Big Bullets 0–0 CIVO United
46′SECOND HALF Nyasa Big Bullets 0–0 CIVO United
49′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–44–11
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Nyasa Big Bullets win: 64% at kick-off, 44% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Nyasa Big Bullets win 44%)
57′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–50–11
63′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–56–10
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Nyasa Big Bullets win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
69′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–63–8
73′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–68–7
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Nyasa Big Bullets win: 64% at kick-off, 24% now
78′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–76–6
81′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–81–5
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Nyasa Big Bullets win: 64% at kick-off, 14% now
84′Nyasa Big Bullets find the net on 84′. 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
84′We published Nyasa Big Bullets at 64%. Our model now makes it 97%. 1–0 · 97–3–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Nyasa Big Bullets 1–0 CIVO United
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Nyasa Big Bullets win: 64% at kick-off, 97% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Nyasa Big Bullets win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 87%)
FTFULL TIME Nyasa Big Bullets 1–0 CIVO United
FTNyasa Big Bullets 1–0 CIVO United · Nyasa Big Bullets win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nyasa Big Bullets are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nyasa Big Bullets 64%, draw 24%, CIVO United 12%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Nyasa Big Bullets v CIVO UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Nyasa Big Bullets win64%

Draw24%

CIVO United win12%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 18

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nyasa Big Bullets

CIVO United

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

Last match: 17 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nyasa big bullets winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Nyasa Big Bullets a 64% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nyasa Big Bullets v CIVO United~~1.65 – 0.55

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 9 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 36 v 21~~1 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nyasa Big Bullets win

Published at 63%, 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nyasa Big Bullets win	64%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
CIVO United win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Nyasa Big Bullets or draw	88%	–	–
Nyasa Big Bullets clean sheet	58%	–	–
CIVO United clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.1%

0123450 11.4 6.1 1 18.1 10.1 2.8 2 14.9 8.2 2.3 3 8.2 4.5 4 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nyasa Big Bullets down, CIVO United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,336 Super League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.1% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nyasa Big Bullets at home: 2.17 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). CIVO United away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Nyasa Big Bullets, 0.55 for CIVO United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CIV 2–2 NYA · NYA 4–3 CIV · CIV 2–1 NYA · CIV 2–2 NYA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 9 Aug

NYASA BIG BULLETS

WWDWWW2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 3–0

CIVO UNITED

LWWWLD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nyasa Big Bullets	17	+18	36
2	Be Forward Wanderers	17	+18	35
3	Blue Eagles	18	+8	34
4	Silver Strikers	17	+13	32
5	Ekhaya	18	+4	25
6	Chitipa United	17	−6	24
7	Masters FC	16	0	22
8	Mitundu Baptist	17	−1	22
9	Red Lions	17	−1	22
10	Moyale Barracks	17	−3	21
11	CIVO United	17	−5	21
12	Dedza Dynamos	17	−9	19
13	Karonga United	16	−8	17
14	Kamuzu Barracks	17	−9	13
15	Creck	17	−9	13
16	MAFCO	17	−10	13