Moyale Barracks v Silver Strikers prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Moyale Barracks 0–1 Silver Strikers SILVER STRIKERS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Silver Strikers win~~43%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.492

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.474

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Silver Strikers win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Silver Strikers was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 27–30–43
1′KICK-OFF Moyale Barracks v Silver Strikers
8′A goal for Silver Strikers on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–18–73
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Moyale Barracks 0–1 Silver Strikers
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Silver Strikers win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
9′We published Silver Strikers at 43%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 9–18–73
26′We published Silver Strikers at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–19–75
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 6–19–75
45′HALF-TIME Moyale Barracks 0–1 Silver Strikers
46′SECOND HALF Moyale Barracks 0–1 Silver Strikers
54′We published Silver Strikers at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Silver Strikers win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
68′We published Silver Strikers at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
77′We published Silver Strikers at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Silver Strikers win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
84′We published Silver Strikers at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Moyale Barracks 0–1 Silver Strikers
FTMoyale Barracks 0–1 Silver Strikers · Silver Strikers win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Silver Strikers are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Moyale Barracks 27%, draw 30%, Silver Strikers 43%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Moyale Barracks v Silver StrikersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Moyale Barracks win27%

Draw30%

Silver Strikers win43%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Moyale Barracks

Silver Strikers

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Silver Strikers	16	+12	29
10	Moyale Barracks	16	−2	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · silver strikers winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market44%

Us43%

~~Market~~44%

We make Silver Strikers a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Moyale Barracks v Silver Strikers~~0.90 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 25 July~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 29~~10 v 4

~~The market · Silver Strikers win~~44% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Silver Strikers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Moyale Barracks win	27%	26%	+1
Draw	30%	30%	0
Silver Strikers win	43%	44%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	35%	38%	−3
Both teams to score	41%	44%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	62%	63%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	16%	19%	−3
Moyale Barracks or draw	57%	56%	+1
Moyale Barracks clean sheet	30%	–	–
Silver Strikers clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.6%

0123450 12.5 14.6 8.8 3.6 1 10.9 13.2 7.8 3.1 2 5.0 5.9 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Moyale Barracks down, Silver Strikers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,331 Super League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.1% of games this season, across 131 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Moyale Barracks at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Silver Strikers away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Moyale Barracks, 1.20 for Silver Strikers. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SIL 4–1 MOY · SIL 3–0 MOY · MOY 1–1 SIL · SIL 1–1 MOY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 25 July

MOYALE BARRACKS

WDLDWL1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

SILVER STRIKERS

DWWDLL1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–5 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Be Forward Wanderers	17	+18	35
2	Nyasa Big Bullets	16	+15	33
3	Blue Eagles	16	+6	31
4	Silver Strikers	16	+12	29
5	Chitipa United	16	−3	24
6	Masters FC	16	0	22
7	Mitundu Baptist	17	−1	22
8	Ekhaya	16	+3	21
9	Red Lions	16	−1	21
10	Moyale Barracks	16	−2	21
11	CIVO United	17	−5	21
12	Dedza Dynamos	17	−9	19
13	Karonga United	16	−8	17
14	MAFCO	16	−7	13
15	Kamuzu Barracks	17	−9	13
16	Creck	17	−9	13