Mitundu Baptist v MAFCO prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Mitundu Baptist 2–0 MAFCO MITUNDU BAPTIST WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mitundu Baptist win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.429

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mitundu Baptist win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mitundu Baptist was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–30–23
1′KICK-OFF Mitundu Baptist v MAFCO
3′Mitundu Baptist score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
3′We published Mitundu Baptist at 47%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Mitundu Baptist 1–0 MAFCO
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Mitundu Baptist win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
35′Mitundu Baptist find the net on 35′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
35′We published Mitundu Baptist at 47%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Mitundu Baptist 2–0 MAFCO
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Mitundu Baptist win: 47% at kick-off, 96% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Mitundu Baptist win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
45′HALF-TIME Mitundu Baptist 2–0 MAFCO
46′SECOND HALF Mitundu Baptist 2–0 MAFCO
77′We published Mitundu Baptist at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Mitundu Baptist 2–0 MAFCO
FTMitundu Baptist 2–0 MAFCO · Mitundu Baptist win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mitundu Baptist are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mitundu Baptist 47%, draw 30%, MAFCO 23%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Mitundu Baptist v MAFCOBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mitundu Baptist win47%

Draw30%

MAFCO win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 18

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mitundu Baptist

MAFCO

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Mitundu Baptist	17	−1	22
16	MAFCO	17	−10	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mitundu baptist winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Mitundu Baptist a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mitundu Baptist v MAFCO~~1.22 – 0.76

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 8 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 22 v 13~~8 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mitundu Baptist win

Published at 46%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mitundu Baptist win	47%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
MAFCO win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Mitundu Baptist or draw	77%	–	–
Mitundu Baptist clean sheet	47%	–	–
MAFCO clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.6%

0123450 14.3 10.4 4.1 1 16.6 12.6 4.8 2 10.2 7.6 2.9 3 4.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mitundu Baptist down, MAFCO across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,336 Super League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.1% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mitundu Baptist at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). MAFCO away: 0.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Mitundu Baptist, 0.76 for MAFCO. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MAF 1–1 MIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 8 Aug

MITUNDU BAPTIST

WLDDDD2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

MAFCO

LDLLLL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nyasa Big Bullets	17	+18	36
2	Be Forward Wanderers	17	+18	35
3	Blue Eagles	18	+8	34
4	Silver Strikers	17	+13	32
5	Ekhaya	18	+4	25
6	Chitipa United	17	−6	24
7	Masters FC	16	0	22
8	Mitundu Baptist	17	−1	22
9	Red Lions	17	−1	22
10	Moyale Barracks	17	−3	21
11	CIVO United	17	−5	21
12	Dedza Dynamos	17	−9	19
13	Karonga United	16	−8	17
14	Kamuzu Barracks	17	−9	13
15	Creck	17	−9	13
16	MAFCO	17	−10	13