MAFCO v Nyasa Big Bullets prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

MAFCO 0–3 Nyasa Big Bullets NYASA BIG BULLETS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nyasa Big Bullets win~~48%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.408

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.314

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nyasa Big Bullets win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nyasa Big Bullets 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 23–29–48
1′KICK-OFF MAFCO v Nyasa Big Bullets
14′Nyasa Big Bullets find the net on 13′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–16–77
14′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 0–1 · 7–16–77
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' MAFCO 0–1 Nyasa Big Bullets
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Nyasa Big Bullets win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Nyasa Big Bullets win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 5–17–78
41′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
45′HALF-TIME MAFCO 0–1 Nyasa Big Bullets
46′SECOND HALF MAFCO 0–1 Nyasa Big Bullets
63′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Nyasa Big Bullets win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
75′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
84′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′A goal for Nyasa Big Bullets on 87′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' MAFCO 0–2 Nyasa Big Bullets
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Nyasa Big Bullets win: 48% at kick-off, over 99% now
88′We said Nyasa Big Bullets at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′Nyasa Big Bullets score on 90′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' MAFCO 0–3 Nyasa Big Bullets
95′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME MAFCO 0–3 Nyasa Big Bullets
FTMAFCO 0–3 Nyasa Big Bullets · Nyasa Big Bullets win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nyasa Big Bullets are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MAFCO 23%, draw 29%, Nyasa Big Bullets 48%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on MAFCO v Nyasa Big BulletsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

MAFCO win23%

Draw29%

Nyasa Big Bullets win48%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MAFCO

Nyasa Big Bullets

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Nyasa Big Bullets	16	+15	33
14	MAFCO	16	−7	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nyasa big bullets winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market55%

Us48%

~~Market~~55%

We make Nyasa Big Bullets a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MAFCO v Nyasa Big Bullets~~0.83 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 25 July~~W0 D1 L5 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 33~~14 v 2

~~The market · Nyasa Big Bullets win~~55% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nyasa Big Bullets win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MAFCO win	23%	18%	+5
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Nyasa Big Bullets win	48%	55%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	36%	38%	−2
Both teams to score	41%	40%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	63%	63%	0
Over 3.5 goals	17%	19%	−2
MAFCO or draw	52%	45%	+7
MAFCO clean sheet	27%	–	–
Nyasa Big Bullets clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.2%

0123450 12.0 15.2 10.1 4.5 1 9.6 12.8 8.3 3.7 2 4.0 5.2 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MAFCO down, Nyasa Big Bullets across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,331 Super League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.1% of games this season, across 131 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MAFCO at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nyasa Big Bullets away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.83 goals for MAFCO, 1.32 for Nyasa Big Bullets. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NYA 1–0 MAF · NYA 3–0 MAF · MAF 0–1 NYA · NYA 1–0 MAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 25 July

MAFCO

LLDLLL1–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

NYASA BIG BULLETS

LWWDWW0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Be Forward Wanderers	17	+18	35
2	Nyasa Big Bullets	16	+15	33
3	Blue Eagles	16	+6	31
4	Silver Strikers	16	+12	29
5	Chitipa United	16	−3	24
6	Masters FC	16	0	22
7	Mitundu Baptist	17	−1	22
8	Ekhaya	16	+3	21
9	Red Lions	16	−1	21
10	Moyale Barracks	16	−2	21
11	CIVO United	17	−5	21
12	Dedza Dynamos	17	−9	19
13	Karonga United	16	−8	17
14	MAFCO	16	−7	13
15	Kamuzu Barracks	17	−9	13
16	Creck	17	−9	13