Karonga United v CIVO United prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Karonga United 1–0 CIVO United KARONGA UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Karonga United win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.576

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karonga United win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Karonga United v CIVO United
2′Little has changed for our model: Karonga United 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–32–30
5′Little has changed for our model: Karonga United 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–33–30
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Karonga United 1–0 CIVO United
25′Karonga United find the net on 24′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–7
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Karonga United win: 38% at kick-off, 72% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Karonga United win: 38% at kick-off, 34% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Karonga United win: 38% at kick-off, 72% now
45′HALF-TIME Karonga United 1–0 CIVO United
46′SECOND HALF Karonga United 1–0 CIVO United
FTFULL TIME Karonga United 1–0 CIVO United
FTKaronga United 1–0 CIVO United · Karonga United win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Karonga United win38%

Draw32%

CIVO United win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Karonga United

CIVO United

35Days since last match36

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	CIVO United	15	−4	20
13	Karonga United	15	−9	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karonga united winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Karonga United a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karonga United win	38%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
CIVO United win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Karonga United or draw	70%	–	–
Karonga United clean sheet	41%	–	–
CIVO United clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 14.9 12.8 5.8 1 14.9 13.5 5.9 2 7.8 6.9 3.1 3 2.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karonga United down, CIVO United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,324 Super League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.1% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 1.82 goals a meeting; 3 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karonga United at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). CIVO United away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Karonga United, 0.89 for CIVO United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.82

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 11

~~Both scored~~5 of 11

~~Last meetings~~CIV 0–1 KAR · KAR 1–2 CIV · CIV 0–1 KAR · CIV 3–0 KAR

Form · last six in Super League

KARONGA UNITED

LWLLDD1–4 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

CIVO UNITED

LLLWWW0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Be Forward Wanderers	16	+17	32
2	Blue Eagles	15	+8	31
3	Nyasa Big Bullets	15	+13	30
4	Silver Strikers	16	+12	29
5	Chitipa United	16	−3	24
6	Masters FC	15	+1	22
7	Ekhaya	16	+3	21
8	Moyale Barracks	15	−1	21
9	Mitundu Baptist	16	−1	21
10	Red Lions	16	−1	21
11	CIVO United	15	−4	20
12	Dedza Dynamos	15	−10	15
13	Karonga United	15	−9	14
14	MAFCO	16	−7	13
15	Kamuzu Barracks	16	−9	12
16	Creck	15	−9	10