Karonga United v Be Forward Wanderers prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Karonga UnitedDrawBe Forward Wanderers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Be Forward Wanderers 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Be Forward Wanderers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karonga United 24%, draw 29%, Be Forward Wanderers 47%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Karonga United v Be Forward WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Karonga United win24%

Draw29%

Be Forward Wanderers win47%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 18

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karonga United

Be Forward Wanderers

14Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

Last match: 17 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Be Forward Wanderers	17	+18	35
13	Karonga United	16	−8	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · be forward wanderers winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Be Forward Wanderers a 47% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karonga United v Be Forward Wanderers~~0.82 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 26 July~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 35~~13 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karonga United win	24%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Be Forward Wanderers win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Karonga United or draw	53%	–	–
Karonga United clean sheet	28%	–	–
Be Forward Wanderers clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.5%

0123450 12.8 15.5 9.9 4.2 1 10.0 13.0 8.0 3.4 2 4.2 5.3 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karonga United down, Be Forward Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,340 Super League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.1% of games this season, across 140 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karonga United at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Be Forward Wanderers away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.82 goals for Karonga United, 1.27 for Be Forward Wanderers. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BEF 4–1 KAR · BEF 2–0 KAR · KAR 1–1 BEF · KAR 1–0 BEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 26 July

KARONGA UNITED

WLLDDW2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

BE FORWARD WANDERERS

DWWLWW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nyasa Big Bullets	18	+19	39
2	Be Forward Wanderers	17	+18	35
3	Blue Eagles	18	+8	34
4	Silver Strikers	18	+13	33
5	Ekhaya	18	+4	25
6	Mitundu Baptist	18	+1	25
7	Chitipa United	18	−6	25
8	Masters FC	17	0	23
9	Red Lions	17	−1	22
10	Moyale Barracks	17	−3	21
11	CIVO United	18	−6	21
12	Dedza Dynamos	17	−9	19
13	Karonga United	16	−8	17
14	Kamuzu Barracks	18	−9	14
15	Creck	17	−9	13
16	MAFCO	18	−12	13