Kamuzu Barracks v Mitundu Baptist prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Kamuzu Barracks 1–1 Mitundu Baptist KAMUZU BARRACKS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kamuzu Barracks win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.779

This prediction was last updated after the match had started (it kicked off on 16 Oct 13:30), so it is shown but not counted in the record’s figures.

The prediction on this page is exactly as we last published it. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kamuzu Barracks are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kamuzu Barracks 49%, draw 30%, Mitundu Baptist 21%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Kamuzu Barracks v Mitundu BaptistBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kamuzu Barracks win49%

Draw30%

Mitundu Baptist win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kamuzu Barracks

Mitundu Baptist

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Mitundu Baptist	16	−1	21
16	Kamuzu Barracks	16	−9	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kamuzu barracks winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Kamuzu Barracks a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kamuzu Barracks v Mitundu Baptist~~1.25 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 26 July~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 21~~16 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kamuzu Barracks win	49%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Mitundu Baptist win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Kamuzu Barracks or draw	79%	–	–
Kamuzu Barracks clean sheet	49%	–	–
Mitundu Baptist clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.4%

0123450 14.4 10.0 3.6 1 17.4 12.3 4.4 2 10.9 7.6 2.7 3 4.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kamuzu Barracks down, Mitundu Baptist across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,328 Super League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.8% of games this season, across 128 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kamuzu Barracks at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mitundu Baptist away: 0.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Kamuzu Barracks, 0.71 for Mitundu Baptist. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MIT 1–0 KAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 26 July

KAMUZU BARRACKS

WDLDLL4–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

MITUNDU BAPTIST

DWLDDD1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nyasa Big Bullets	16	+15	33
2	Be Forward Wanderers	16	+17	32
3	Blue Eagles	16	+6	31
4	Silver Strikers	16	+12	29
5	Chitipa United	16	−3	24
6	Masters FC	16	0	22
7	Ekhaya	16	+3	21
8	Mitundu Baptist	16	−1	21
9	Red Lions	16	−1	21
10	Moyale Barracks	16	−2	21
11	CIVO United	16	−5	20
12	Dedza Dynamos	16	−9	18
13	Karonga United	16	−8	17
14	MAFCO	16	−7	13
15	Creck	16	−8	13
16	Kamuzu Barracks	16	−9	12