Kamuzu Barracks v Chitipa United prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kamuzu BarracksDrawChitipa United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Kamuzu Barracks 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kamuzu Barracks are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kamuzu Barracks 51%, draw 29%, Chitipa United 20%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Kamuzu Barracks v Chitipa UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Kamuzu Barracks win51%

Draw29%

Chitipa United win20%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 19

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kamuzu Barracks

Chitipa United

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Chitipa United	18	−6	25
14	Kamuzu Barracks	18	−9	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kamuzu barracks winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Kamuzu Barracks a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kamuzu Barracks v Chitipa United~~1.31 – 0.70

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 15 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 25~~14 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kamuzu Barracks win	51%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Chitipa United win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Kamuzu Barracks or draw	80%	–	–
Kamuzu Barracks clean sheet	50%	–	–
Chitipa United clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.3%

0123450 13.8 9.2 3.3 1 17.3 12.4 4.3 2 11.4 7.9 2.8 3 5.0 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kamuzu Barracks down, Chitipa United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,340 Super League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.1% of games this season, across 140 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kamuzu Barracks at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chitipa United away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Kamuzu Barracks, 0.70 for Chitipa United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~CHI 2–1 KAM · KAM 3–0 CHI · CHI 1–0 KAM · KAM 2–0 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 15 Aug

KAMUZU BARRACKS

LDLLDD0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

CHITIPA UNITED

WDDWLD1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nyasa Big Bullets	18	+19	39
2	Be Forward Wanderers	17	+18	35
3	Blue Eagles	18	+8	34
4	Silver Strikers	18	+13	33
5	Ekhaya	18	+4	25
6	Mitundu Baptist	18	+1	25
7	Chitipa United	18	−6	25
8	Masters FC	17	0	23
9	Red Lions	17	−1	22
10	Moyale Barracks	17	−3	21
11	CIVO United	18	−6	21
12	Dedza Dynamos	17	−9	19
13	Karonga United	16	−8	17
14	Kamuzu Barracks	18	−9	14
15	Creck	17	−9	13
16	MAFCO	18	−12	13